Market Overview: Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Mira/Tether declined 20.8% over 24 hours, breaking below key support at 0.5224.
• High volume and bearish momentum suggest a continuation of the downward trend.
• RSI is oversold (below 30), but price remains below Bollinger Band midpoint, signaling weak reversal signals.
• Price closed near daily low at 0.5026, with bearish engulfing patterns forming after key resistance failures.
• Total notional turnover reached $59.1M, with volume surging in late ET hours as price dropped to 0.4986.

Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) opened at $0.5561 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.558, and closed at $0.5026 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The 24-hour volume amounted to 49,349,207.5 units, with notional turnover totaling approximately $59.1 million. The price action has exhibited a strong bearish bias, with a key support level at 0.5224 breached and no significant reversal signs in momentum indicators.

Structure and formations suggest a continuation of bearish sentiment. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.5224, followed by a breakdown into a new 14-day low at 0.4986. The price has remained below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the downward bias. Notable resistance levels include 0.5319, 0.5359, and 0.5428, while support levels are now at 0.4966, 0.4986, and 0.5013. A doji appeared near 0.4986, indicating indecision, but the overall trend remains bearish.

The RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 29.5, but has not shown a convincing bullish reversal, and the MACD has remained negative throughout the 24-hour period. Volatility has expanded as price moved through multiple key levels, pushing the lower Bollinger Band down from 0.524 to 0.496 by the end of the period. Price closed near the lower band, with no sign of a significant bounce. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.4991 has been tested but not held, while the 38.2% level at 0.5176 has already been broken.

Volume spiked during the breakdown at 0.5224 and again at 0.4986, with notional turnover aligning with the price decline, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between price and RSI has not yet developed, suggesting that the move remains conviction-driven. Bollinger Band contraction did not occur before the breakdown, implying the move was more trend-following than range-breaking. The next 24 hours may see a test of 0.4966 as the next support level, with a potential for further downside into 0.4951 if bearish momentum persists. Investors should watch for a possible rejection or consolidation near 0.5011 before any near-term reversal can be considered.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves entering a short position when MIRAUSDT breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with a close below the 50-period EMA and a bearish MACD crossover. Stop-loss is placed above the nearest swing high, and a target is set at the next Fibonacci level. Given the current structure and the confirmed breakdown at 0.5224 and 0.4986, these conditions have already been met, validating the strategy's entry signal. However, the oversold RSI and doji at 0.4986 suggest a cautious approach, as further downside may be volatile and subject to sudden reversal. Traders should closely monitor the 0.4966 level for confirmation of the strategy's continuation.