Market Overview for Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Price declined from a high of $0.4242 to a low of $0.3344, closing at $0.3396 after a volatile session.
• A sharp bearish reversal occurred mid-day with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement acting as a key level.
• Volume spiked during the bearish move but has since normalized with lower turnover in the final hours.
• RSI approached oversold territory in the latter half, indicating potential short-term buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the sell-off, reflecting heightened volatility and trend exhaustion.

Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) opened at $0.4156 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, touched a high of $0.4242, fell to a low of $0.3344, and closed at $0.3396 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume reached 35,490,202.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $12,563,646.87 (calculated using average close prices per period). The asset displayed a strong bearish bias early in the session, followed by a consolidation phase toward the end of the day.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period witnessed a sharp bearish breakdown following a large-volume candle forming on 2025-10-10 at 21:30 ET. This candle, characterized by a high of $0.468 and a low of $0.2096, acted as a bearish engulfing pattern after a prior consolidation phase. The price continued to pull back, finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $0.344 before bouncing slightly. A bearish flag pattern was also observed following the initial breakdown, with a clear trendline and consolidation range. Key resistance levels include $0.345 and $0.357, while key support levels are at $0.342 and $0.334.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned bearish in the morning session, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA, signaling a potential bearish crossover. By the end of the day, both moving averages had continued to trend downward, suggesting that the short-term bias remains bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period MAs showed a bearish divergence, with price failing to close above the 50-period MA after a previous false breakout attempt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early part of the session, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. By the end of the day, the MACD had continued to trend lower, indicating sustained bearish pressure. The RSI approached oversold levels in the latter half of the day, dipping below 30 during the 10:00–10:15 ET period. This may indicate potential for a short-term rebound, though it remains to be seen whether this is a false bounce or a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the sharp sell-off, with price breaking below the lower band as early as 21:30 ET. This expansion signaled a high-volatility period with potential for exhaustion. As the price approached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it began to consolidate between the bands, indicating a potential equilibrium point for the next 24 hours. The width of the bands narrowed slightly in the final hours, suggesting a possible consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown period with the 21:30 ET candle alone contributing $11,787,297.56 in turnover. This was the largest single-candle volume and turnover of the day. However, volume normalized in the latter half of the session, with no major spikes observed after 04:30 ET. A divergence between price and volume was noted in the final 4 hours, as price bounced slightly while volume remained below average, suggesting potential for a false recovery or a bear trap.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key bearish move from $0.4242 to $0.3344, the 38.2% level at $0.344 acted as a strong support. The 61.8% level at $0.337 and the 50% level at $0.379 provided additional levels to watch. Price bounced from the 38.2% level and has since tested the 50% level twice, failing to break through. The 61.8% level may now act as the next potential support if the trend continues downward.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying high-probability reversal setups based on candlestick patterns and Fibonacci retracement levels. By combining the bearish engulfing pattern observed during the breakdown and the 38.2% retracement level as a support, a short-term reversal trade could be triggered. The RSI entering oversold territory further supports this setup. A potential trade entry would be placed just above the 38.2% level with a stop loss placed below the 61.8% level. A successful rebound would validate the pattern and Fibonacci support, offering a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5 to 1:2, based on the expected price recovery toward the 50% and 61.8% levels.