Market Overview for Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) – 2025-10-09

• Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) traded in a descending pattern over the 24-hour period, closing near the session low at 0.4688 after peaking at 0.54.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30 and MACD turned negative, suggesting oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded in the early session before settling with price within a narrowing Bollinger Band range.
• Notional turnover surged in early trading, with a divergence from price as volume increased while prices declined.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the high, indicating a potential reversal, but was followed by a prolonged decline.

Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT) opened at 0.5079 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4688 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 0.54 and a low of 0.4528. Total volume amounted to 577,114,047.50, and notional turnover was approximately 275,155,032.94 USD. The price action shows a clear bearish bias with limited signs of short-term recovery.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed multiple bearish formations, including a large bearish engulfing candle at the top near the 0.54 level and a long-legged doji near 0.528, signaling indecision and exhaustion. Key support levels formed at 0.522 and 0.475, while resistance was tested at 0.53 and 0.54. A breakdown below the 0.47 level could trigger further momentum to the 0.46 and 0.45 support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with price trading below both, reinforcing a downtrend. Daily MA indicators (50, 100, 200) also showed bearish alignment, with no sign of a crossover to indicate a reversal. This suggests continued downward pressure unless price finds a strong base near the 0.47 level.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after a brief positive phase in the early session, with bearish divergence observed between price and the histogram. RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, but without a clear rebound, it appears to be a weak bounce. The combination of bearish momentum indicators suggests the market remains in control of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session as price moved between 0.54 and 0.475, but it has since settled within a narrowing Bollinger Band range. Price has remained below the 20-period lower band, indicating a strong bearish bias. A breakout above the upper band would require a sharp reversal and increased momentum, currently absent in the data.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours as prices peaked at 0.54, with high notional turnover of 13,352,322 USD in the first 30 minutes alone. Divergence emerged later in the session as volume decreased while price continued to decline, suggesting weakening conviction from sellers. The final 6 hours of the session saw a steady drop in volume, indicating a possible exhaustion of downward momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retraced key levels at 38.2% (0.517) and 61.8% (0.533) during the early decline. Daily Fibonacci levels show a possible short-term support at 0.467 and 0.452, aligning with recent low points. A test of the 0.46 level would likely trigger further downward movement unless buyers step in at the 0.467 retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels and using them as entry points in conjunction with bearish candlestick patterns such as engulfing and hanging man formations. A sell signal is generated when price breaks below a 38.2% Fibonacci level and confirms with a bearish pattern. Stop-loss is placed just above the nearest resistance, while the target is set at the 61.8% retracement level on the daily chart. This approach would have captured the initial decline from 0.54 to 0.475 with a reasonable risk-to-reward ratio. Given current price behavior and technical indicators, this strategy could be applied to the next potential swing from 0.47 to 0.46.