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Summary
• Price opened at 1.51e-06 and closed at 1.39e-06 after a 7.3% decline.
• Volatility picked up post-20:30 ET, with a sharp drop to 1.39e-06 near session close.
• Volume surged above 100k at 08:45 ET, indicating strong bearish
Mina/Bitcoin (MINABTC) opened at 1.51e-06 and traded as high as 1.54e-06 before declining to a 24-hour low of 1.39e-06, closing at 1.39e-06. Total volume reached 71936.1, while turnover (amount) totaled 96. Notable bearish pressure emerged after 20:30 ET, with several large-volume downcandles indicating aggressive selling.
Structure formed around 1.51e-06 as a key resistance, with a breakdown occurring after a failed attempt to retest this level late in the session. The 1.51e-06 to 1.45e-06 range now appears as a potential support zone. No clear bullish reversal patterns emerged, but a long bearish candle at 08:45 ET (1.41e-06 to 1.39e-06) suggests exhaustion in the short-term.
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward trend. MACD remained in negative territory with a shrinking histogram, indicating waning momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could follow the recent drop. Bollinger Bands saw a sharp expansion coinciding with the price break below the lower band, highlighting heightened volatility and bearish conviction.
Volume spiked significantly after 08:00 ET, with over 84,000 units traded during the largest single 15-minute candle. This high-volume drop coincided with a sharp price move, offering strong confirmation of bearish sentiment. Notional turnover also surged during this period, aligning with the price action. A divergence between price and RSI may suggest overselling has taken hold.
Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 1.51e-06 to 1.39e-06 move indicate a 38.2% retracement at 1.45e-06 and a 61.8% retracement at 1.48e-06. A potential rebound from 1.39e-06 could test these levels over the next 24 hours, especially if buying interest emerges in response to the RSI oversold condition.
Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest could be built using the Bearish Engulfing pattern, which typically signals a top in an uptrend. For MINABTC, this pattern—defined by a smaller bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle covering the prior range—could serve as an early warning of a trend reversal. Given the recent price action and bearish confirmation in volume and RSI, identifying such patterns could help refine entry and exit strategies in a short-term bearish approach.
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