Market Overview for Mina/Bitcoin (MINABTC) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price formed a key bearish breakdown below 1.34e-06 and tested lower levels around 9.3e-07 on heavy volume.
• Momentum shifted bearishly with RSI dipping below 30 and MACD turning negative mid-day.
• Volatility surged early in the session, followed by a sharp consolidation phase.
• Turnover spiked during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, aligning with the price drop to 4.7e-07.
• A long lower shadow at 9.3e-07 suggests possible support, but bears remain in control.

Market Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, Mina/Bitcoin (MINABTC) opened at 1.34e-06 and reached a high of 1.35e-06 before plunging to a low of 3.4e-07. By 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, the pair closed at 1.05e-06. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was approximately 2,283,693.5 units, while notional turnover amounted to roughly 2.44 BTC (based on weighted average prices).

Structure & Formations

A sharp breakdown occurred around 21:00–22:00 ET, with the price dropping from ~1.33e-06 to 4.7e-07, forming a long bearish body with a small upper shadow. This was followed by a rebound but failed to reclaim key resistance at 1.14e-06. A long lower shadow appeared at ~9.3e-07, suggesting a temporary floor. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed between 21:00–21:15 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed bearishly into alignment with the price drop, confirming the breakdown. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the initial sell-off, narrowing slightly as price consolidated. The 200SMA on the daily chart is likely above current levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. The recent price action suggests the pair may test the next support level at ~8.7e-07, with a potential bounce or breakdown likely within the next 24 hours.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

RSI dipped below 30 during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, indicating oversold conditions. However, the bounce to ~1.05e-06 did not see a corresponding RSI rebound to over 50, suggesting a weak rally. MACD crossed into negative territory mid-day and remained bearish. A potential short-term reversal might occur if RSI stabilizes above 40, though a further breakdown remains probable in the absence of strong bullish confirmation.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume surged during the sell-off, with the largest single bar at 908280.9 units during the 21:30–21:45 ET window. Turnover closely followed volume spikes, confirming the price move. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price during the consolidation phase, suggesting the bearish move is still backed by conviction. However, the lack of follow-through buying above 1.14e-06 indicates bearish momentum remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from ~1.35e-06 to ~3.4e-07 saw a 61.8% retracement at ~9.7e-07 and a 38.2% retracement at ~1.03e-06. Price appears to have found a short-term bounce at ~1.05e-06, slightly above the 38.2% level. A breakdown below ~9.7e-06 would suggest a continuation of the downtrend toward ~8.7e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns followed by a consolidation phase, with a stop-loss placed just above the pattern’s high. A short entry would be initiated at the close of the consolidation bar, with a target set at the next Fibonacci 61.8% level and a stop at the 38.2% retracement. This approach aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern at ~1.33e-06 and the subsequent consolidation between ~9.7e-06 and ~1.05e-06. The strategy could be tested on similar setups over the next week, with performance metrics tracking accuracy and risk-reward ratios.