Market Overview for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) - October 3, 2025

• Price surged to $14.27 before consolidating near $13.73 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong 15-minute bullish momentum flagged with 13.83–14.25 as key range.
• Volume peaked at 3,360 during 19:30–20:00 ET, but volume flagged divergences after 01:00 ET.
• RSI overbought above 70 midday, then oversold at close.
• Volatility expanded post 18:15 ET with widening Bollinger Bands.

Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at $13.73 on October 2, 2025, and reached a 24-hour high of $14.27 before retreating to a low of $13.66. At 12:00 ET on October 3, 2025, the pair closed at $13.73. Total 24-hour volume was approximately 92,815 METIS, and notional turnover reached $1,293,618 USD.

Structure & Formations

The price traced a clear bullish impulse from $13.73 to $14.27, marked by a strong 15-minute breakout above the $14.00 pivot. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a bearish retracement below $14.00, forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern at the 01:15–01:30 ET timeframe. Key support levels include $13.90 and $13.73, while resistance holds around $14.00 and $14.15. A long lower shadow at 21:15–21:30 ET suggests potential rejection at $13.80, which could delay further bearish momentum.

Moving Averages & Indicators

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish cross at $14.05 between 18:15–19:30 ET, aligning with the surge above $14.25. However, as the price declined below the 50-period MA, the 20-period MA began to slope downward. The RSI hit overbought levels above 70 during the $14.27 peak but dropped to oversold territory below 30 by the final candle, suggesting a potential bounce. The MACD crossed into bearish territory with a bearish histogram expansion after 01:30 ET, indicating weakening momentum.

Volatility & Fibonacci Retracement

Bollinger Bands widened during the $13.73–$14.27 move, signaling increased volatility. The price closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $13.80, suggesting potential for a bounce or continuation. The 38.2% level at $13.97 appears to have acted as a temporary resistance, failing to hold the upward trend after 20:00 ET. A breakdown below $13.73 would target the next 61.8% level at $13.66, a key psychological level to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a 15-minute trading strategy based on a bullish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with a stop loss placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, would have captured the rally from $14.03 to $14.25. A trailing stop could have been initiated at $14.10–$14.15 to lock in gains. Given the current bearish divergence in volume and the RSI in oversold conditions, a counter-trend short could be considered near $13.80 if the price fails to hold above this level for more than 15 minutes.

The forward-looking view suggests a cautious outlook for the next 24 hours. While the $13.73–$13.80 range appears to be key for near-term direction, a breakout above $14.10 would indicate renewed bullish momentum. Investors are cautioned about the risk of a sharp correction if support at $13.73 fails, especially with volume diverging at the bottom end of the range.