Market Overview for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from $8.54 to $8.00, with a 24-hour low near $8.00.
• Volatility surged in the early morning with a sharp drop, followed by consolidation.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum, with price below key moving averages.

Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at $8.27 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $8.00 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The pair reached a high of $8.61 and a low of $8.00 during the period. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 141,502.76 units, with a notional turnover of $1,136,704. The price action reflected heightened bearish pressure, especially during the early hours of 2025-11-04, where a sharp decline followed by limited recovery signaled potential bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a large bearish engulfing pattern during the 05:30–05:45 ET candle on 2025-11-04, with a high of $8.49 and a low of $8.26, closing at $8.28. This pattern was followed by a continuation lower as the 06:00–06:15 ET candle gapped down to $8.04. Subsequent candles showed limited buying, with the price failing to retest the $8.30 level, indicating a lack of near-term demand. Key support levels appear to be forming around $8.00–8.05 and $8.12–8.16, while resistance is found near $8.28 and $8.34. A doji formed on the 12:00–12:15 ET candle, suggesting short-term indecision at the lower end of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both fallen below key price levels, reinforcing bearish bias. The 50-period line currently sits around $8.13, and the 20-period is near $8.06. Price has remained below both, suggesting continued bearish control. On a daily scale, the 50/100/200-period averages are not readily calculated from this 15-minute dataset, but the direction of the 15-minute averages indicates a potential short-term bearish trend that may persist if support levels are not held.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has remained in negative territory, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum trend. The RSI has shown oversold conditions at times (falling below 30) but has not seen meaningful buying, suggesting that a bounce may be short-lived. RSI readings have remained in the lower 40s to 50s for the past several hours, indicating limited upside potential. These indicators, combined with the bearish candlestick patterns, suggest a continuation lower unless buyers step in near the $8.00–8.05 level.

Bollinger Bands

Price has moved to the lower band of the Bollinger Band structure during the early morning hours, especially from 05:30–06:15 ET. This suggests increased volatility and potential for a bounce or further decline depending on volume behavior. The bands have since expanded, indicating higher volatility. The price has remained in the lower third of the bands for most of the 24-hour period, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume surge occurred between 05:30 and 06:15 ET, during which volume spiked to over 10,000 units and turnover hit $85,000. This coincided with the sharp drop from $8.28 to $8.04, suggesting strong selling pressure. However, volume has since dropped significantly, with the 15-minute volume averaging around 1,200–2,000 units per candle. This indicates that the initial selling may have been concentrated, and there is limited follow-through, which could signal a possible short-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the swing from $8.00 (low on 2025-11-04) to $8.61 (high on 2025-11-04) show key levels at 61.8% ($8.34) and 38.2% ($8.23). The price has already bounced from the 61.8% level but failed to hold above the 38.2% level, indicating bearish exhaustion. A further decline toward the 23.6% level at $8.16 is possible if the $8.23 level breaks.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further evaluate bearish momentum, a 14-period RSI-based strategy could be explored using this dataset. A sell signal might be generated when RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss placed at the next higher Fibonacci level. However, as noted, the RSI data for “HOLD.P” could not be retrieved due to symbol recognition issues. To resolve this, the correct exchange-qualified symbol should be provided (e.g., “HOLD.P ARCA”), or an alternative ticker that is publicly accessible can be used. If a CSV/Excel file of daily prices is available, the RSI can be calculated locally. Default RSI settings (14-period, oversold < 30, overbought > 70) will be used unless otherwise specified.