Market Overview for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT): 24-Hour Review

• Price dropped from $12.42 to $9.55 over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour low.
• High volatility seen after midday ET, with sharp bearish moves and large-volume swings.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI briefly touching oversold levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion, reflecting increased market uncertainty.
• Volume spiked during key downside moves, confirming bearish sentiment.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at $12.40, reached a high of $12.47, and fell to a low of $4.10 before closing at $9.55. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume traded was 650,088.42 METIS, with a notional turnover of approximately $5,678,000. The pair showed pronounced bearish action, particularly after 19:00 ET, with sharp downward moves and high-volume confirmation of bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price of METISUSDT formed a broad bearish trend channel from early in the session, with a key support level forming around $9.00 and a resistance level near $12.40. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 19:30 ET, where a large red candle completely covered a prior bullish candle, signaling a shift in momentum. Additionally, a doji formed near $10.98, indicating indecision and potential for a short-term bounce. However, the bearish pressure returned, breaking through $10.00 by 21:15 ET.

Moving Averages and Timeframes

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance during a brief rebound in the late hours, limiting upside potential. On the daily chart (assumed from OHLC), the price is well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD and RSI Momentum

The 12-period MACD crossed below the signal line in the early afternoon, signaling a bearish crossover. The MACD histogram showed increasing negative divergence, especially between 19:00 and 21:00 ET. The RSI, at one point dipping below 30, signaled oversold conditions, but failed to generate a convincing bounce. A bearish RSI divergence occurred after 22:00 ET, with price finding new lows while RSI moved sideways, suggesting lingering bearish momentum and potential for further downside.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish phase, with the Bollinger Bands widening from approximately $12.20 to $12.30 to a range of $4.10 to $12.47. The price spent much of the session near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A brief bounce near $10.98 brought the price closer to the middle band, but bearish pressure quickly returned. The contraction before the large move down could be interpreted as a consolidation pattern, followed by a breakout in a bearish direction.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume increased sharply after 19:00 ET, coinciding with the price drop from $12.30 to $9.55. The largest volume spike occurred between 21:00 and 21:30 ET, when METISUSDT fell from $11.00 to $6.01, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, reinforcing the strength of the move. A bearish divergence appeared in the final hours, with price making lower lows but volume declining, suggesting potential exhaustion. This may point to a near-term bottom or consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 15-minute swing from $12.42 to $10.74 shows a 38.2% retracement level at around $11.60 and a 61.8% level at $11.18. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the move from $12.42 to $4.10 is at $8.26, which could offer temporary support. The price has yet to reach this level, and continued bearish momentum may push it further.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the price breaks below the 15-minute 50-period moving average with increasing volume and RSI dipping below 40. A stop-loss could be placed at the most recent swing high, with a target based on the Fibonacci 61.8% level. Given the bearish MACD and RSI divergence, this strategy may offer favorable risk-reward during volatile bearish trends like the one observed. The strategy should be tested using historical data to evaluate its robustness across different volatility environments and timeframes.