Market Overview for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) on 2025-10-06

• Price declined from $14.17 to $13.63 before rebounding to $14.39, showing bearish pressure followed by a partial recovery.
• Momentum shifted from bearish in the first half to mixed in the second, with RSI moving toward overbought territory.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the 13:15–14:45 ET window, with a $0.45 range and high-volume consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 13:00 ET, indicating growing uncertainty and potential for a breakout.
• The 13.6–14.36 range shows strong internal support and resistance, with key Fibonacci levels aligning with key OHLC data.

The 24-hour period for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at $14.06 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $14.39 on 2025-10-06 at 13:15 ET, and a low of $13.63 at 2025-10-05 20:00 ET, before closing at $14.30. The pair traded with a total 24-hour volume of 44,507.59 METIS and a notional turnover of $612,654.63 USD.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong bearish impulse from $14.17 to $13.63, followed by a rebound that reached $14.39, forming a bullish recovery pattern. A key support level was identified around $13.6–13.7, where price found repeated consolidation. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 18:00 and 18:15 ET, confirming the short-term downtrend. Later, a bullish hammer at 20:15 ET marked the turning point. A potential bullish flag pattern formed between 22:30 ET and 00:15 ET the next day, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price between 18:00 and 19:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA later crossed above the 20-period MA as the price rebounded, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA currently sits at around $14.0, below the current price, suggesting a short-term bullish tilt relative to the long-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the bearish phase but flipped positive during the recovery, indicating a shift in momentum. The histogram grew larger during the 13:15–14:45 ET window, suggesting strong conviction in the bullish move. The RSI moved into overbought territory after the 13:45 ET candle, crossing the 70 level and hinting at potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. However, divergence between RSI and price did not appear during the recovery phase, suggesting the move remains legitimate for now.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the 13:15 ET breakout to $14.39, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty. Price stayed near the upper band during the bullish move but pulled back toward the centerline in the latter part of the session. The midline of the bands aligned with the 50-period MA, reinforcing a potential support/resistance level at $14.0–14.1. A contraction in the bands was observed in the early morning hours, suggesting a potential breakout could be imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish leg between 20:00 and 20:15 ET, with the 20:15 ET candle alone accounting for over $6,000 in turnover. A second surge occurred during the 13:15–14:45 ET window, with the largest 15-minute candle (13:15 ET) recording over $11,000 in turnover. This volume increase coincided with a sharp price rise, suggesting strong buyer interest. Divergences were not observed in the volume profile during the bearish move, indicating conviction in the initial sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the major 15-minute swing from $13.63 to $14.39, the 50% retracement level is around $13.96–14.0, which coincided with key consolidation periods and candle closures. The 61.8% level at around $14.32–14.33 was tested and held during the 13:15–13:45 ET window. Daily Fibonacci levels aligned with the 14.0–14.2 range, indicating a key area of interest for potential continuation or reversal patterns in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a bullish breakout pattern on the 15-minute chart, triggering a long entry when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band while the RSI is above 60 and MACD is positive. This strategy was observed to have occurred around 13:15 ET, when the breakout to $14.39 occurred with strong volume confirmation. The strategy assumes a target of 1.5x the entry volatility (true range) and a stop loss placed below the 20-period MA. Based on the current structure and retracement levels, this setup may offer a high-probability trade if the price remains above $14.30 in the next 24 hours.