Market Overview for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) – 2025-09-20

• Price action showed a bearish breakdown from a recent 15.76–15.32 range, closing near 15.01.
• Volatility expanded sharply in the early part of the session, with volume surging to 19,585.683 METIS at 18:15 ET.
• RSI and MACD indicated bearish momentum, with RSI trending toward oversold territory.
• Key support levels were tested at 15.00–14.96, while resistance appears at 15.14–15.18.
• A potential reversal pattern emerged near 15.01–15.08 with mixed bullish and bearish signals.

24-Hour Price and Volume Action

Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at 15.69 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 15.80, and fell to a low of 14.82 before closing at 15.01 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. Total volume amounted to 102,909.33 METIS, with notional turnover of approximately $1,543,972 (assuming average price of ~$15.05). The market experienced a sharp selloff from 18:15–20:00 ET, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern and a breakdown below the 15.46–15.53 range.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

The price moved through a key resistance at 15.76, then dropped to test a 15.46–15.58 range. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:15–18:30 ET as price dropped from 15.32 to 15.01 in one candle. This was followed by several smaller bullish and bearish consolidations, with a possible hammer forming near 14.91–15.01. A potential bear trap may have formed near 15.18–15.24. Key support levels appear at 15.00–14.96, with 14.82 acting as a secondary floor, while resistance is forming at 15.14–15.18 and 15.24–15.27.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs crossed bearishly (death cross) during the breakdown from 15.69 to 15.01. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the 18:15–19:45 ET period, confirming increased volatility. Price tested the lower Bollinger Band multiple times in the late session, with a brief retest of the upper band on the 15.24–15.27 move. Daily moving averages suggest a longer-term bearish bias, with price below both 50- and 200-day averages.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum

The MACD showed a bearish divergence in early trading, with price rising while the indicator declined. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30 in the 18:45–20:30 ET window, failing to produce a strong rebound, suggesting weak momentum. A bullish divergence occurred briefly in the 11:45–12:15 ET window, as RSI bottomed while price dipped slightly, hinting at potential support near 15.00. However, this remains unconfirmed without a clear break above 15.14.

Fibonacci and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements based on the 15.76–15.32 swing identified 15.53 (38.2%), 15.46 (50%), and 15.35 (61.8%) as critical levels, all of which were broken during the selloff. On the daily chart, a larger move from 15.76–14.82 suggests 15.14 (38.2%) and 15.39 (61.8%) as potential turning points. A retest of the 15.18–15.24 zone may trigger a correction if bears fail to hold below 15.00.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

The largest volume spike occurred at 18:15 ET, with 19,585.683 METIS traded and a price drop from 15.32 to 15.01. This confirmed the bearish breakdown. Turnover at that time totaled ~$301,124 (15.32 average price), compared to a 24-hour average of ~$15,000 per 15-minute candle. Volume declined significantly after 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20, suggesting a possible pause in selling pressure. Price and volume were aligned during the breakdown but diverged in the 11:15–12:15 ET window, where price rose slightly while volume declined, hinting at weak conviction in the short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish breakdown and subsequent consolidation, a backtesting strategy could utilize a short entry on a break below 15.00 with a stop just above 15.14, and a target near 14.82. A long entry could be triggered on a close above 15.18, with a stop at 15.00 and a target aligned with 15.24–15.27. This strategy relies on momentum divergence in the 15.00–15.18 range and assumes continuation of the 15.00–14.82 trend.