Market Overview for Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC) - October 4, 2025

• Price declined from $5.57e-06 to $5.33e-06 over 24 hours with bearish momentum.
• Volume surged to 10,500.7 in morning trading, but price moved lower.
• Key support tested at $5.33e-06 with potential for further downside.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum and oversold conditions.
• Volatility contracted near $5.37e-06, with bearish continuation expected.

Market Context and Summary

MTLBTC opened at $5.56e-06 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $5.57e-06, and closed at $5.33e-06 as of October 4 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading period saw total volume of 22,617.9 and turnover of approximately $109.85. The price action reflects a bearish trend with multiple intraday bearish formations and diverging volume- price dynamics.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a broad bearish channel from $5.57e-06 to $5.33e-06, with key support levels identified at $5.45e-06 and $5.33e-06. Notable bearish patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:15 ET and a hanging man at $5.47e-06. A strong bearish reversal occurred between 01:45 ET and 02:00 ET, confirming downward momentum. The price tested support at $5.33e-06 and bounced slightly, indicating short-term consolidation is possible.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50/100/200 daily EMA lines show a prolonged downtrend, with price well below the 200EMA. The MACD crossed into negative territory and showed bearish divergence, while the RSI fell into oversold territory (under 30), suggesting a potential short-term bounce but not a reversal. Momentum remains weak, with no sign of a bullish reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded during the morning hours (ET) as price moved between the lower and middle Bollinger Bands, indicating heightened bearish pressure. A contraction in volatility occurred near $5.37e-06, signaling a potential setup for a break below the key support level. The price has remained within the lower third of the bands for much of the 24-hour period, indicating bearish dominance.

Volume & Turnover Insights

Volumes surged during key bearish moves, especially around 01:45 ET (volume: 4602.7) and 04:45 ET (volume: 2180.6), confirming the strength of the bearish trend. However, price failed to follow volume spikes above $5.45e-06, highlighting a divergence that could signal further weakness. The most recent large-volume candle (10500.7 at $5.42e-06) closed lower, suggesting bearish control continues.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show the price has retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5.45e-06 without breaking it. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level at $5.45e-06 has been a key resistance. If the price breaks below the 38.2% level at $5.37e-06, it could signal a test of the 61.8% level at $5.33e-06, potentially setting up for a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern formation, confirmed by a close below the 20SMA and RSI under 30. Stops could be placed above the recent 15-minute high, while targets align with key Fibonacci levels. This approach leverages the convergence of candlestick patterns, moving averages, and momentum indicators to capture the continuation of the bearish trend with defined risk parameters.