Market Overview for Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC)

Summary
• Price opened at $3.95e-06 and closed at $3.97e-06, down from a high of $3.96e-06.
• Volatility expanded in early session, with a key bearish reversal seen near $3.92e-06.
• Volume surged mid-day as price consolidated near $3.9e-06, showing moderate buying pressure late.

Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC) opened at $3.95e-06 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.97e-06 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The price reached a high of $3.96e-06 and a low of $3.77e-06. The 24-hour volume totaled 348,546.9 contracts, and the notional turnover was $1,349.83, calculated using average price.

Structure & Formations

MTLBTC displayed a bearish structure in the early morning, with a rejection at $3.92e-06 forming a potential support zone. A long-bodied bearish candle in the 18:30–18:45 ET timeframe (UTC-4) and a lower wick in the 19:30–19:45 ET period hinted at short-term seller dominance. A key bullish reversal formed around $3.85e-06 and $3.9e-06 late in the session, indicating possible accumulation. The price closed near the upper Bollinger Band during the final hour, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend could be in play.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price hovered above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. The 50-period SMA has been trending upward, reinforcing the short-term strength. On the daily chart, a 50/200 SMA crossover is not imminent, but price remains above the 200-period SMA, suggesting an ongoing uptrend in a broader context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line late in the session, signaling a potential acceleration in bullish momentum. RSI remains in neutral territory, hovering around the 55–60 range, with no clear overbought or oversold readings. However, RSI divergence occurred in the morning, which may suggest a short-term pause in the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early morning before consolidating mid-day. The closing hour saw a significant reversion to the upper Bollinger Band, indicating heightened buying pressure. A potential break above the 20-period band could signal a continuation of the upward bias, but a pullback toward the mid-band may be expected in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 20:30–20:45 ET (UTC-4) and again at 21:30–21:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from $3.89e-06 to $3.82e-06, indicating strong bearish pressure. A moderate volume increase in the final hour supported the move above $3.95e-06, suggesting accumulation by buyers. A divergence between price and volume in the early morning raises caution for a short-term pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent swing from $3.77e-06 to $3.96e-06 show the 61.8% level at $3.87e-06, where price found some buying support. The 50% retracement at $3.86e-06 coincided with a minor consolidation, but a break above the $3.96e-06 high would open the door to the 78.6% level at $3.99e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis
The failed RSI retrieval highlights a common issue in alternative crypto pairs like MTLBTC—many data sources require exchange-specific ticker prefixes for accurate historical data access. Once the correct ticker is confirmed (e.g., BINANCE:MTLBTC or another liquid pair), a 1-day-hold strategy can be backtested from 2022-01-01 to the current date. This strategy would enter long positions when RSI falls into oversold territory (below 30) and exit the following day. Given the current RSI behavior, which remains in neutral to slightly bullish territory, oversold-based signals may not trigger in the short term, but the overall structure of the pair suggests potential for such a strategy to capture short-term rebounds.