Market Overview for Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC) on 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price action trended lower on rising volume after a brief rally.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum with no overbought signals.
• Bollinger Bands reflect moderate volatility with price near the lower band.

Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC) opened at 4.54e-06 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 4.61e-06, and fell to a low of 4.49e-06 before closing at 4.52e-06 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 57,517.2 units, and notional turnover amounted to ~$260.72 (based on average price of ~$4.53e-06). The pair displayed a bearish bias amid uneven volume distribution, with significant price retracements observed in the early morning and late afternoon ET.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for MTLBTC displayed a bearish trend with several key support and resistance levels. A notable bearish reversal pattern appeared at 4.56e-06 in the early session, while price found temporary support at 4.52e-06 in the final hours. No strong bullish candlestick patterns were identified, but bearish continuation formations—such as lower highs with shrinking bullish bodies—suggest continued downward pressure could emerge in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key support levels, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving average setup showed a bearish bias as price closed below the 50-period line. This suggests a potential test of the next support level at 4.49e-06 or 4.48e-06, which was briefly touched in the early morning ET session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, with the signal line tracking the price closely, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. RSI declined from the mid-50s to the 45–48 range, showing a bearish divergence with price action during the late morning ET decline. While not yet in oversold territory, the RSI behavior suggests a continuation of the downward trend is more probable than a reversal in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was moderate to wide with the Bollinger Band width expanding during the initial rally in the early evening ET session. Price tested the lower band multiple times, particularly after the 4.53e-06 level was broken. This suggests traders may have used the band as a reference for shorting or taking profits. A break below the lower band may trigger further volatility and deeper corrections.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price levels—most notably at 4.56e-06 and 4.54e-06—suggesting significant participation during those price points. However, volume was relatively subdued during the final hours of the session, which may indicate waning interest in shorting or a potential consolidation phase ahead. Turnover remained in line with volume, with no significant divergence noted between the two metrics.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 4.49e-06 to 4.61e-06, key levels at 38.2% (~4.55e-06) and 61.8% (~4.53e-06) were tested but failed to hold. This supports the idea that the current bearish phase is still in progress, with the next possible target at the 78.6% retracement level (~4.51e-06), which coincided with the low for the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate the bearish thesis, a backtest based on the “Bullish Engulfing” candlestick pattern would typically be used to assess potential short-term reversals. Unfortunately, the pattern data for MTLBTC could not be retrieved due to a potential issue with the symbol format (e.g., “MTL-BTC” vs. “MTL/BTC”). To proceed, clarifying the correct symbol format on the exchange or providing a manual list of Bullish Engulfing occurrences since 2022 would allow the backtest to be completed. Alternatively, a switch to a more commonly available asset could be considered. Once resolved, a 24-hour hold performance analysis can be conducted, offering empirical validation of the current bearish bias.

A candlestick chart of MTLBTC showing a bearish trend with declining RSI and MACD lines, moderate Bollinger Band width, and volume spikes at key levels would effectively visualize this analysis.

A 24-hour OHLC candlestick chart with overlays for 20/50-period moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and RSI could be used to illustrate the bearish bias and potential short-term support levels.