Market Overview for Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC) – 2025-11-03

• Price traded in a narrow range for most of the day before declining in late hours
• Volatility increased after 19:00 ET with a downward breakdown and consolidation
• Turnover remained low until late in the day, with a spike in volume at 15:45–16:30 ET
• Key support tested at 3.85e-06 with a rejection observed

Opening Summary

MTLBTC opened at 4.06e-06 at 12:00 ET-1, reaching a high of 4.13e-06 before closing at 3.83e-06 as of 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 26,565.2, while notional turnover reached 106.0 (assuming BTC-based valuation). The pair spent most of the day trading sideways before a sharp decline in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a descending wedge pattern between 4.06e-06 and 4.13e-06 early in the day, followed by a breakdown after 19:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:30 ET, confirming a potential reversal to the downside. A small-bodied candle with a long lower wick was seen at 17:00–17:15 ET, indicating rejection of lower levels temporarily.

A strong bearish rejection was observed at 3.85e-06 in the last hour, as price tested this level and bounced back slightly, suggesting a short-term support may be forming there.

Support / Resistance Levels

Key support levels to watch include:- 3.85e-06 – tested and rejected- 3.81e-06 – potential next support- 3.76e-06 – a deeper bearish threshold

Resistance levels include:- 3.94e-06 – multiple retests- 3.98e-06 – a strong prior ceiling- 4.06e-06 – initial opening level and early resistance

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging at around 3.93e-06–3.95e-06, both sloping downward. This suggests a bearish bias in the short term.

On the daily chart, price remains below the 50/100/200-period moving averages, indicating that the trend is still bearish on a larger time frame.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the afternoon, indicating a bearish momentum shift. The histogram has turned negative and is expanding, reinforcing downward pressure.

RSI dropped below 30 in the final hour of the report, entering oversold territory. This could suggest a possible bounce or short-term reversal, but caution is warranted as volume did not increase significantly at that point.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate a potential strategy, we need the exact symbol format including exchange and quote currency (e.g., “BINANCE:MTLBTC” or “MTL/BTC”). Confirming this will allow us to retrieve the 14-day RSI and run a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03. This would provide insight into how the pair might respond to overbought/oversold conditions and RSI crossovers in a live market setting.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained tightly within the Bollinger Bands for most of the day, with a slight contraction observed between 19:00–22:00 ET, indicating low volatility. However, a breakout to the downside occurred after 15:45 ET, with price closing below the lower band by the end of the day. This suggests increased bearish momentum and potential for further downside in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained near zero for most of the day, but a significant increase was noted between 15:45–16:30 ET as price broke below 3.9e-06. This was followed by another volume spike as price hit 3.83e-06. Despite the bearish move, the volume was not excessively high, which could indicate a lack of conviction on the sell-side or potential short-term overselling.

Notional turnover followed a similar trend to volume, with a small increase during the breakdown and a sharp decline as the price hit oversold levels. This divergence suggests caution, as it could indicate a potential price rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 4.13e-06 to 3.83e-06, the 38.2% retrace level is at 3.98e-06, and the 61.8% is at 3.94e-06. Price has already tested both levels, with the 3.94e-06 level acting as a key support in multiple instances.

On the daily chart, the 50% retrace level of the broader move from 4.13e-06 to 3.81e-06 is at 3.97e-06. This level may offer resistance if price attempts to rebound from current levels.

Forward-Looking View & Risk Caveat

With price testing key support at 3.85e-06 and entering oversold territory, a short-term rebound or consolidation seems likely. However, given the bearish structure and volume dynamics, a continuation of the downward trend into the 3.81e-06–3.76e-06 range cannot be ruled out. Investors should monitor the 3.94e-06 level as a critical retest area and be mindful of potential divergence between volume and price action.