Market Overview for Metal DAO/Bitcoin (MTLBTC) – 2025-10-12

• Price declined from $4.37e-06 to $4.2e-06 during the 24-hour period, with consolidation seen in the final hours.
• A bearish trend continued on increasing volume in the early evening, followed by consolidation and a potential short-covering rally in late ET.
• Volatility expanded early in the session but narrowed in the final 6 hours, suggesting reduced conviction in price direction.
• RSI reached overbought levels briefly, while MACD showed a bearish crossover, confirming weak momentum.
• Volume spiked at 19:30 ET and 09:15 ET, aligning with key support and resistance levels.

The 24-hour session for MTLBTC began at $4.37e-06 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.34e-06 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. The price ranged between $4.52e-06 (high) and $4.2e-06 (low). Total volume traded during the session was 65,399.5 units, with a notional turnover of $0.276 BTC-equivalent. Price action was bearish through most of the session, with a late rebound failing to close above key resistance.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish bias from 16:00 to 20:00 ET, with several bearish engulfing patterns indicating seller dominance. A key support level was confirmed near $4.2e-06, where price bounced twice. A doji at 19:15 ET and a morning rally from 02:00 to 05:00 ET suggest short-term indecision and potential reversal signals. Resistance is evident at $4.36e-06, with failed attempts to break above this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearishly aligned, with price largely below the 20SMA. The 50SMA crossed below the 20SMA, signaling a bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are in a bearish configuration, suggesting further downside potential unless a strong reversal occurs above the 50DMA.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative early in the session, confirming bearish momentum. A bearish crossover occurred at 16:30 ET, reinforcing the downtrend. RSI dipped to oversold territory near 25 in late ET, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI remained below 50 for most of the session, highlighting weak buying pressure. Divergence between price and RSI in the final 3 hours suggests exhaustion in the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early part of the session, with price touching the upper Bollinger Band twice. As the session progressed, volatility contracted, with price settling closer to the 20-period SMA. The narrowing bands suggest reduced market sentiment and a period of consolidation, particularly in the final 6 hours. Price remains near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 19:30 ET, coinciding with a breakdown below $4.28e-06, and again at 09:15 ET, aligning with a short-covering rally. These spikes confirmed the price moves and suggested strong conviction in the bearish and bullish phases. However, the late ET volume was significantly lower, indicating weakening interest. Turnover aligned with these volume surges, with a total of $0.276 BTC-equivalent traded.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were key in identifying potential turning points. The 61.8% retracement level at $4.28e-06 acted as a short-term support, while the 38.2% at $4.33e-06 provided resistance during the late ET rally. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level at $4.31e-06 coincided with a failed attempt to stabilize price, suggesting further bearish potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart to generate entries and exits in line with the observed trend. A long entry could be triggered when price crosses above the 50SMA with confirmation from rising RSI above 50, while a short entry could follow a breakdown below the 20SMA with a bearish MACD crossover. This would align with the observed bearish momentum and could be tested for accuracy in capturing the early session downtrend and the late consolidation phase.