Market Overview for Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) – October 29, 2025

• Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) closed lower at 0.001619, down from 0.001664 after a 24-hour volatile pullback.
• Price broke key support at 0.001620, extending a downward correction from a 0.001684 intraday high.
• Volume surged near the close, with a divergence in turnover hinting at potential short-term reversal.
• RSI oversold at 26, suggesting potential bounce, while MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover.
• Volatility widened as price traded within a 0.001616–0.001684 range, with Bollinger Bands widening during the sell-off.

24-Hour Price Movement and Turnover

Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) opened at 0.001664 on October 28 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 0.001684, and closed at 0.001619 at 12:00 ET on October 29. The price action reflects a 3.3% decline over 24 hours, amid heightened volatility. Total traded volume stood at 795.6 million MEME tokens, while notional turnover reached approximately $1.3 million, marking a 20% increase from the previous 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The price pattern over the 24-hour period appears to resemble a bearish engulfing pattern, particularly in the 18:00–19:00 ET timeframe, where the candle closed significantly below the previous high. A key support level at 0.001620 was broken with conviction, while 0.001634 now acts as a critical resistance. A doji formed near the 0.001619 close, suggesting indecision after the sharp selloff.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) has dipped below the 50-period SMA, forming a bearish crossover. The daily SMA 50/100/200 show a bearish alignment, indicating a medium-term downtrend. Price is currently trading below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, signaling waning bullish momentum. RSI has moved into oversold territory at 26, which could signal a potential bounce in the near term. However, the bearish divergence between RSI and price action in the latter half of the 24-hour window suggests caution. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded during the selloff, with price now settling near the lower band.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply in the last 4 hours of the 24-hour window, peaking at 54.5 million MEME tokens on October 29 at 16:00 ET. Notional turnover also rose, with a 30% increase observed during the final 4 hours. The divergence between bearish price action and rising volume suggests some accumulation could be taking place. However, without a definitive reversal candle or breakout, confirmation is pending.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.001619 to 0.001684), key levels to watch include 0.001652 (38.2%), 0.001637 (50%), and 0.001626 (61.8%). Price appears to have bounced at 0.001626 in the final hour, which could act as a near-term support. If the pullback fails to hold, the next support is expected at 0.001613.

Backtest Hypothesis

A Fibonacci-based 3-day-hold backtest could be applied to MEMEUSDT, focusing on retracements after significant swings in the 15-minute and daily charts. The strategy would look to enter long at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels following a pullback, with exits at the next Fibonacci level or stop-loss at the swing low. Given the current bearish momentum and RSI in oversold territory, this approach could help identify potential short-term reversals while managing risk in a volatile market.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The next 24 hours will be critical in determining whether the recent oversold condition leads to a rebound or if bearish pressure continues. Traders should watch for a close above 0.001634 to signal a potential short-term reversal. However, caution is warranted due to the bearish divergence in RSI and the weak close. Investors are advised to monitor volume and turnover for signs of accumulation ahead of a potential bounce.