Market Overview for Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT)

Summary
• Price closed near the session high after a sharp rally in the late night session.
• RSI shows rising momentum but remains below overbought levels.
• Volume spiked significantly as the price approached new 24-hour highs.

Opening Narrative

Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) opened at $0.001615 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET and closed at $0.001599 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.001666 and a low of $0.001546 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume reached 339,006,797.0, with notional turnover amounting to $548,943.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish continuation pattern in the early morning hours following a sharp pullback, with a key support identified around $0.001577. A strong resistance zone emerged near $0.001633–$0.001638 after the price failed to hold the overbought RSI levels. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed around 14:30 ET as the price bounced off the 24-hour low and surged above the prior bearish candle. A doji appeared at 02:45 ET during the sharp selloff, indicating indecision before the price rebounded.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA around $0.001620, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA moved above the 100-period MA in recent days, suggesting a longer-term upward trend. The 200-period MA currently sits at $0.001605 and appears to be providing a floor for the price in the early morning session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a bullish crossover with the signal line around $0.001645 in the early evening hours, with positive divergence building into the early morning session. RSI reached a peak of 69 in the late afternoon before declining into neutral territory. The RSI did not breach overbought levels despite the sharp rally, suggesting the move may still have room to extend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late night session as the price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band for the first time in the 24-hour window. The bands had been constricting in the early morning hours before the sharp rally. Price remains just inside the upper band as of the close, indicating strong bullish momentum but also heightened sensitivity to a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 50 million at 16:15 ET as the price approached a new 24-hour high, with the highest turnover occurring between 14:30 ET and 16:30 ET. The volume and price action aligned well during the rally, suggesting strong conviction. A divergence was noted during the selloff at 02:45 ET, where volume declined despite a sharp move lower, indicating weak bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The price found support at the 61.8% retracement level of the 24-hour move around $0.001577, suggesting that the bearish pullback was in line with Fibonacci expectations. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from $0.001546 to $0.001666 came in at $0.001613, coinciding with a key consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a strategy involving buying MEME/USDT on RSI overbought signals and selling at the next closing price has shown effectiveness in timing the market’s directional shifts. The RSI correctly identified overbought conditions multiple times, often following significant price rises. However, the strategy’s profitability was limited as sell signals occurred at the next closing price, which tended to follow a downward trajectory after peaks. The timing was generally aligned with market fluctuations, such as the September 2022 rally and subsequent corrections. Despite this, external factors like broader market corrections or news events influenced outcomes. The strategy remains viable for traders seeking to capture short-term price movements but must account for market volatility and broader conditions that can override RSI signals.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The rally has built momentum with a strong move above key resistances, suggesting that further upside into the $0.001640–$0.001660 range could be in play. However, a pullback to test the 24-hour low near $0.001577 could be imminent, particularly if the RSI fails to confirm further strength. Traders should monitor volume patterns closely, as a divergence in volume during a pullback could indicate a reversal.