Market Overview for Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT)

• Price opened at $0.002649 and closed at $0.002284, with a 24-hour high of $0.002744 and low of $0.002147.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed after the midday peak, confirming a sharp sell-off in the early hours of ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET, with price dropping over 10% from its intraday high.
• Notional turnover reached $113.48 million in the 61500 ET candle, the highest in the dataset, while volume peaked at 1.13 billion.
• RSI hit overbought territory briefly in the early afternoon before entering oversold territory by the end of the session.

Price and Turnover Summary

Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) opened at $0.002649 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.002744, and closed at $0.002284 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The pair recorded total volume of 1.42 billion tokens and a notional turnover of approximately $376.5 million during the 24-hour window. Price action reflects a bearish reversal after a brief bullish impulse.

Structure and Formations

Price developed a strong bearish bias after forming a large engulfing candle at 06:15 ET, signaling a reversal from prior momentum. A bearish harami pattern emerged between 04:30 and 05:00 ET, followed by a long lower shadow doji at 07:30 ET—both reinforcing potential exhaustion in the short-term bulls. Key support levels are forming at $0.002315, $0.002290, and $0.002265, with $0.002585 acting as a critical resistance on the retest path.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line in the afternoon session, confirming a bearish momentum shift. RSI remains in oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential for a countertrend rally unless a strong bearish catalyst emerges.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET as price dropped below the lower Bollinger Band and remained there through the close. The contraction in the bands occurred just before the breakout, suggesting a period of consolidation before the sharp decline. The current wide band width reflects heightened uncertainty and increased trading activity.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume surged to over 1.13 billion in the 06:15 ET candle as price dropped sharply to a 24-hour low, indicating a strong bearish commitment. Turnover also spiked to $113.48 million during that candle, aligning with the volume surge. However, in the final hour of the session, volume dropped to a relatively low 18 million tokens, despite price continuing to trade near the 24-hour low, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion in the bears.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.002147 to $0.002744, key levels are at $0.002437 and $0.002310, both of which were tested during the session. The 61.8% level at $0.002310 appears to be gaining support as of the close. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the previous bearish leg is near $0.002270, a level that could be tested if the current downtrend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum confirmed by the engulfing and harami patterns, a backtest strategy could be built around a short entry on break of the 06:15 ET candle’s low at $0.002297, with a stop above the doji high at 07:30 ET ($0.002509) and a target at 61.8% Fibonacci at $0.002270. The MACD crossover and RSI entering oversold territory also support a high-probability short setup. This aligns with a strategy of entering after a bearish confirmation candle and using Fibonacci levels for exits.