Market Overview for Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price action shows a volatile 24-hour range between $0.00125 and $0.001411.
• Volume surged to $331,985,200 during the 16:30 ET candle, signaling heightened interest.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at the close of the session, hinting at potential pullbacks.

The 24-hour period for Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) on 2025-11-05 opened at $0.001368 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.001416 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of $0.001411 and low of $0.00125. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 639,604,384, while notional turnover was $854,002. The price experienced significant swings, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the early dip to the late rally occurring around $0.001346, offering potential support for near-term buyers.

Price tested multiple levels of resistance and support over the day, with a notable bearish break at $0.001306 in the early afternoon (20:30 ET), followed by a sharp reversal and recovery into the overnight hours. A bullish engulfing pattern formed after 03:00 ET, confirming the reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period line (0.001368) crossed above the 50-period (0.001361), suggesting a short-term bullish bias.

On the momentum side, the RSI rose sharply from oversold territory during the afternoon into overbought conditions by the close, peaking near 75. This could indicate a potential pullback or consolidation phase. MACD showed a narrowing histogram, with the line crossing above the signal line during the overnight session, supporting the bullish reversal. Bollinger Bands displayed a notable expansion after 05:00 ET, with price trading near the upper band during a period of high volatility.

Volume spiked significantly at 16:30 ET and again at 20:30 ET, coinciding with key price movements. However, the volume was not consistently aligned with the price surges, suggesting potential divergence or speculative buying.

Backtest Hypothesis
The Bullish Engulfing 3-day-hold backtest is a strategy rooted in candlestick analysis, specifically leveraging the bullish engulfing pattern—a strong reversal signal when it appears after a downtrend. For this strategy, signals were generated automatically by detecting is_bullish_engulfing = 1 in the candlestick data. Once triggered, the strategy enters a long position at the close of the day and holds it for a maximum of three trading days. No additional risk controls, such as stop-loss or take-profit levels, were applied in the initial version of the test. This design allows for a pure assessment of the pattern's predictive power in a real-world context.

Performance metrics, including trade-by-trade analysis and an equity curve, offer insight into the strategy's effectiveness. These results are crucial for understanding how often the pattern leads to profitable outcomes and whether the holding period aligns with the market's response to the signal. The strategy can be further refined by comparing it to a benchmark (e.g., ETF HOLD.P) or adjusting the holding period. Given the current volatility and recent bullish patterns in MEMEUSDT, this strategy could serve as a useful tool in a diversified trading approach.