Market Overview: Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) — 2025-10-06 12:00 ET

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Summary
• Price opened at $0.002476 and closed at $0.002445, declining by 1.25% with a high of $0.002538.
• Volatility expanded midday as price surged past 61.8% Fibonacci level before consolidating.
• Volume spiked during the midday rally, peaking at 65M MEMEUSDT traded.
• RSI moved into overbought territory during the rally, suggesting potential reversal risk.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.002538 after a 1.7% intracandle reversal.

Opening & Price Action

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-06, Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) opened at $0.002476 and traded within a $0.002462–$0.002538 range, with a 24-hour close at $0.002445. Total volume traded amounted to 239,422,782 MEMEUSDT, with a notional turnover of approximately $585,000 (based on average price). Price behavior showed a morning selloff, a sharp midday rally, and evening consolidation.

Structure & Key Levels

Key resistance appears to form at the $0.002538 level, where price created a bearish engulfing pattern. A significant support level lies at $0.002462, where price found buyers after a sharp decline. A doji and a potential bullish harami pattern emerged during the afternoon consolidation phase, suggesting indecision among traders.

Moving Averages & Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, MEMEUSDT closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. The 200-period moving average remains above current levels, indicating a larger bearish bias. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the morning, followed by a strong expansion during the midday rally, suggesting increased volatility and potential for further price discovery.

MACD & RSI

The 12–26–9 MACD crossed below the signal line during the morning sell-off and showed a bearish divergence with price during the midday rally. RSI reached overbought levels of 75 before reversing, confirming exhaustion and a likely pullback. A reading below 50 in the evening indicates renewed bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the midday rally, reaching 65 million MEMEUSDT traded in a single candle (15:30–16:00 ET), while turnover increased in tandem. However, volume declined during the consolidation phase despite a price rebound, indicating weakening conviction among buyers. A volume-based divergence is evident around $0.002500–$0.002538, suggesting a possible near-term top.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute swing from $0.002462 to $0.002538, MEMEUSDT tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.002517) before reversing downward. The 38.2% level ($0.002495) was also rejected, pointing to a key area of resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the recent leg-down could be found near $0.002445, where price is currently consolidating.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the bearish engulfing candle's high of $0.002538 with a stop above $0.002560 and a target at $0.002445 (43% move). A trailing stop at $0.002485 could also be considered during the consolidation phase. Given the divergence in volume and RSI, this setup could be tested across multiple timeframes to assess its robustness in a volatile, low-cap environment.