Market Overview for Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• Price surged 7.2% from 0.002455 to 0.002530 in early session, but reversed sharply with a late sell-off.
• RSI overbought above 70 in midday, followed by a bearish divergence and a strong pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the morning rally, then tightened as momentum collapsed.
• Volume spiked during the 19:00–20:00 ET rally but sharply declined during the 00:00–04:00 ET sell-off.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.002590–2591, confirming short-term bearish bias around key resistance.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-02, Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) opened at 0.002455 and traded as high as 0.00262 during the session. The price closed at 0.002530 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, after a late sell-off dragged the pair down to a session low of 0.002469. The 24-hour volume amounted to 518,757,532.0, with notional turnover (volume × average price) reaching approximately $1,308,329.43.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a strong morning rally from 16:00 to 20:00 ET, reaching 0.00262 before encountering a bearish rejection at the 0.002608–0.00262 zone. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 20:00–20:15 ET session at 0.002607–0.002602, confirming the breakdown from resistance. The daily close settled at 0.002530, below key support at 0.002520, which suggests a potential bearish continuation toward 0.002474–0.002480 if the trend persists. A morning doji around 0.002515 also indicated indecision, followed by a clear bearish follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-EMA at 0.002533 and the 50-EMA at 0.002541, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period EMA is bearish, and the 200-period SMA on the daily chart is at 0.002503, suggesting the price may continue to consolidate below this key level in the near term. A break below 0.002520 could trigger further support tests at 0.002505 and 0.002480, which could offer a more favorable risk/reward setup for short-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after midday, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum took over. The RSI crossed below 70 in the morning, indicating overbought conditions, but then fell sharply below 50, suggesting bearish exhaustion. A bearish divergence formed between price and RSI at 0.002590–0.002580, which preceded the sharp sell-off. A bearish crossover on the MACD is now in place, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning rally, reflecting increased volatility. After the peak at 0.00262, the bands began to contract, indicating waning momentum and a potential consolidation phase. Currently, the price is sitting at the lower band at 0.002474–0.002480, which could either act as support or trigger further bearish follow-through if the trend continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning rally, peaking at 92,708,686 at 20:00 ET, but sharply declined during the late-night sell-off. The decline in volume during the 00:00–04:00 ET period was notable, especially as the price fell from 0.002597 to 0.002528. This volume divergence suggests that the bearish move may lack broad conviction, and a rebound could occur if short-term liquidity is exhausted.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the high of 0.00262 to the low of 0.002480 indicate a 38.2% level at 0.002546 and a 61.8% level at 0.002513. The current price of 0.002530 is slightly above the 61.8% level, which could offer a potential support zone. A retest of this area could confirm bearish momentum or trigger a bounce if buyers emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions when the price breaks above the 20-EMA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI crosses above 50, with a stop loss at the 20-EMA. The strategy assumes that the 20-EMA represents strong dynamic support, and a breakout implies bullish momentum. For short positions, the strategy recommends entering when the price breaks below the 50-EMA and the RSI crosses below 50, with a stop loss at the 50-EMA. While the strategy has shown moderate success in trending environments, it may struggle in ranging markets or during high volatility, such as seen in the morning session of this period.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Over the next 24 hours, the price may continue to consolidate near 0.002520, with a potential test of support at 0.002505–0.002480. A break below 0.002480 could signal a more aggressive bearish phase, while a rebound above 0.002520 may trigger a short-term countertrend rally. Investors should remain cautious, as the recent divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests volatility could persist.