Market Overview: Measurable Data Token/Tether (MDTUSDT) – 2025-11-11

• MDTUSDT surged above 0.01740 before retracing to 0.01712, forming key support near that level.
• Momentum weakened post-0.01740, with RSI peaking above 65 and closing below 50.
• Volume spiked during the morning rebound but declined as price pulled back.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands in the early session but narrowed by close.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 0.01731 held as a partial pivot during consolidation.

The MDTUSDT pair opened at 0.01712 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.01772, and retreated to a low of 0.01702 before closing at 0.01712 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 13,939,095.4, with notional turnover estimated at USD 240,489. The session saw notable intraday volatility and volume surges in the early hours, with price action suggesting a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish inside bar pattern after the 0.01747 high, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern as it closed below the prior session's low. Key support levels are at 0.01712 and 0.01702, while resistance appears near 0.01732 and 0.01740. A doji formed near 0.01716 in the early hours, signaling indecision before the final leg down.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a reversion in trend as the 50-period line crossed above the 20-period during the early morning session. On the daily chart, the 50-period line remains above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a short-term bearish bias with potential for a countertrend bounce.

MACD & RSI

The RSI surged above 65 during the morning peak at 0.01772 and fell back below 50 by close, indicating a loss of momentum. The MACD line crossed the signal line near 0.01730, confirming a bearish crossover. However, a potential reaccumulation phase may be forming if the RSI stays above 30 for the next session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly around 0.01730–0.01747 before narrowing in the final hours. Price closed near the middle band at 0.01730, suggesting potential for a directional move if the range breaks. A break above 0.01740 could trigger a retest of the 0.01747 high, while a break below 0.01702 may accelerate the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.8 million during the morning rally, then steadily declined through the day, aligning with a bearish trend in price. Notional turnover rose with the volume, but a divergence emerged after 0.01740, where volume dropped despite continued price movement. This divergence suggests potential for a correction or consolidation in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from 0.01712 to 0.01772 saw the 61.8% retracement level at 0.01731 hold as a pivot. On the daily chart, the same retracement level coincided with the 50-period moving average, reinforcing the significance of this area. A test of the 38.2% level at 0.01718 may precede a further consolidation or breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-overbought long strategy tested on MDTUSDT over this period yielded a negative overall and annualized return, with significant drawdowns. The negative Sharpe ratio suggests poor risk-adjusted performance, indicating that simply buying on overbought RSI conditions and exiting on a modest pullback is ineffective here. This aligns with the observed bearish momentum and volume divergence in the recent session. To improve outcomes, consider adding trend filters, volume-based entry/exit triggers, or tighter risk controls such as stop-loss and take-profit levels. These adjustments may help align the strategy with the current market dynamics and avoid the trap of acting solely on overbought signals in a consolidating or bearish market.