Market Overview for Mask Network/Tether (MASKUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Price opened at $1.284 and surged to $1.303 before consolidating into a 1.270–1.295 range.
• A key bearish reversal candle at 17:15 ET and a large bullish reversal at 21:00 ET suggest strong momentum shifts.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the session, with volume peaking at $94,401.3 and confirming price swings.
• RSI entered overbought territory twice, and Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion, indicating active trading.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.279 may act as critical support in the next 24 hours.

Mask Network/Tether (MASKUSDT) opened at $1.284 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and traded as high as $1.303 before closing at $1.262 as of 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair experienced significant intraday volatility, with a total trading volume of approximately $643,406.1 and a notional turnover of $1,016,870.7 over the 24-hour period. The price formed distinct reversal patterns and tested key Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

The price moved between key support and resistance levels throughout the session, with a bearish reversal candle at 17:15 ET (high: $1.303, low: $1.290) signaling a potential top. A strong bullish reversal followed at 21:00 ET, pushing the price back up to $1.296. The formation of a large bearish candle with a long upper wick during the 17:15–17:30 ET window suggests aggressive selling pressure. A doji candle appeared at 09:45 ET, indicating indecision and a potential short-term reversal. The key 1.270–1.295 range appears to have defined short-term price action, with 1.270 serving as a critical support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price oscillated above and below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reflecting choppy intraday conditions. The 20SMA crossed the 50SMA briefly during the 21:00–21:15 ET window, forming a potential bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits at $1.294 and the 200-day SMA at $1.287, suggesting the pair is consolidating in a sideways range. The 50SMA currently appears to be acting as a dynamic resistance level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed divergent momentum shifts, with a strong bearish signal during the 17:15–17:30 ET candle and a subsequent bullish crossover at 21:00 ET. The RSI entered overbought territory twice—during the 20:45–21:00 ET and 15:45–16:00 ET windows—before retreating below 60. During the late evening and early morning hours, RSI dipped into oversold territory, reaching as low as 38, suggesting potential for a bounce.

The stochastic RSI confirmed the overbought and oversold levels, with a bearish divergence forming just before the large bearish candle. Momentum appears to be shifting back in favor of the bulls if the price can stabilize above $1.270.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the Bollinger Band width reaching a multi-day high. The price briefly touched the upper band during the 21:00–21:15 ET window, confirming the bullish breakout. During the 02:00–02:15 ET window, the price traded near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions. The midline (20-period SMA) acted as a pivot during most of the session, and the price tended to consolidate within the band during quiet hours, indicating a period of consolidation before the next breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 21:00–21:15 ET and 08:00–08:15 ET windows, coinciding with the large bullish and bearish reversal candles. Total volume during the 24-hour period was $643,406.1, while notional turnover was $1,016,870.7, reflecting active trading. A divergence between volume and price occurred during the 17:30–17:45 ET window, where the price declined but volume remained muted, suggesting a lack of conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high of $1.303 and the swing low of $1.270, the 38.2% level at $1.287 and the 61.8% level at $1.279 appear to be key levels for near-term support and resistance. The price tested the 61.8% level during the 03:00–03:15 ET window and bounced off it before continuing its descent. A successful rebound above $1.279 could signal a short-term bullish reversal, while a break below $1.270 would likely extend the downtrend toward $1.260.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.279, with a stop-loss placed below the 1.270 support level and a take-profit target at the 38.2% retracement of $1.287. Given the recent divergence in RSI and the confirmation of this level during the 03:00–03:15 ET window, this setup may offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for traders anticipating a short-term reversal. Additionally, a short trade could be triggered on a breakdown below $1.270, with a stop-loss at $1.275 and a target at $1.260.