Market Overview for Marlin/Tether USDt (PONDUSDT): A Technical Breakdown

• Price surged 4.3% over 24 hours, forming a bullish breakout above 0.00815.
• RSI crossed 50, indicating growing momentum with no overbought conditions yet.
• Bollinger Bands widened, confirming rising volatility amid strong buying pressure.
• High-volume candle at 0.00816–0.00830 suggests key support at 0.00815–0.00817.
• Divergence in volume and price seen in the final hour, hinting at potential consolidation.

Opening Summary and Price Action

Marlin/Tether USDt (PONDUSDT) opened at 0.00804 on September 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00824 on September 5 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 0.00832 and a low of 0.00796. Total 24-hour volume reached 109,847,522.0, with a notional turnover of $898,296.65.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish bias in the early hours of September 5, forming a key breakout candle at 05:30 ET, which surged from 0.00818 to 0.00830. A bearish rejection occurred during the 14:00–14:15 ET window, forming a potential short-term resistance at 0.00830. A doji candle appeared at 14:45 ET, signaling potential indecision or consolidation at 0.00811–0.00812. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:15–02:30 ET, supporting the view that the 0.00815–0.00817 range is a critical support level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price in the morning hours of September 5, confirming a shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 0.00808, and the 200-period MA is at 0.00802, suggesting a positive medium-term trend. Price is currently trading above the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bullish case for the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 06:00 ET and remained in bullish territory for the remainder of the session, with the signal line lagging behind, indicating strong upward momentum. The RSI crossed the 50 threshold at 05:45 ET and pushed toward 57 at the close, suggesting continued strength but not yet overbought conditions. A potential pullback may occur if the RSI drops below 50 again.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the bullish breakout at 05:30 ET, indicating increased volatility and strong buying pressure. Price remained above the midline of the bands, suggesting continuation of the uptrend. A contraction in band width could indicate a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 05:30 ET with the large bullish candle, confirming the strength of the breakout. However, a divergence occurred in the final hour of the session, where price continued to rise but volume declined slightly, signaling potential exhaustion. Turnover closely followed the price action, indicating strong participation across both bulls and bears.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.00796 to 0.00830, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.00818 and the 61.8% level is at 0.00809. The price tested the 61.8% level at 14:30 ET and rebounded, suggesting potential for further upward movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 15-minute RSI crossover above 50 as an entry trigger, combined with a bullish engulfing candle pattern. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.00810 support, with a target at the 0.00825–0.00830 range. Given the current RSI reading and the strength of the volume on the breakout candle, this strategy could be validated with a 24-hour holding period and a 5% risk limit. This aligns with the observed momentum and price structure, making it a viable short-term trade setup.