Market Overview: Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) — Volatile Rally in Final Hours

• Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) drifted lower in early ET but rallied sharply in the afternoon, closing near a 24-hour high.
• Price remained within a tight range for most of the day, showing subdued volatility before a late rally.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final candle, signaling potential short-term upside momentum.
• Trading volume surged during the afternoon upswing, confirming the price move rather than diverging from it.

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at $0.00835 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00840, and closed at $0.00840 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour volume totaled 12,637,690.0 with a notional turnover of approximately $104,167. A late-day rally capped a range-bound session, culminating in a bullish reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price remained confined between $0.00825 and $0.00835 for most of the session before a late burst higher. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on the final candle, with the close at $0.00840 surpassing the prior candle’s high. This pattern typically signals a reversal and may indicate a short-term bullish bias. The intraday support at $0.00827–$0.00830 was respected multiple times, suggesting a possible floor for near-term corrections. No significant bearish patterns emerged prior to the close.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed above the 50-period (SMA50) in the final hours of the session, forming a short-term golden cross. This reinforces the bullish bias observed in the final candle. On the daily chart, the 50SMA and 100SMA are converging, suggesting a potential breakout scenario if the current upward bias holds into the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive in the final 3 hours, aligning with the price rally. RSI rose from 45 to 55 near the close, indicating a shift in momentum toward the bullish side. Although not yet overbought (RSI < 60), the momentum shift is notable and could continue if buyers remain active.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent 15-minute rally, coupled with the golden cross and bullish engulfing pattern, suggests that a breakout above $0.00840 may trigger further upside. A backtesting strategy that enters long at the open of the next candle after a bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop loss below $0.00830 and a target at $0.00850, could be tested. This approach leverages the pattern’s reversal strength and the rising momentum observed in the final hours.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility remained compressed for the majority of the session, with price oscillating within a narrow Bollinger Band range. A contraction in the band width occurred during the early part of the day, but a sudden expansion in the final hours mirrored the sharp price rise. The final candle closed near the upper band, suggesting a potential overbought condition, but the price may continue to test resistance levels as volatility remains elevated.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the final 3 hours, with the final 15-minute candle alone accounting for over 500,000 units traded. This aligns with the upward move and suggests strong buyer interest. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the volume signal. No divergence between price and turnover was observed, reinforcing the validity of the late-day rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.00825 to $0.00840, the current price nears the 61.8% retracement level. A break above this level would target the 78.6% retracement at approximately $0.00852. On the 15-minute chart, intraday swings suggest that a 38.2% retracement at $0.00836 may serve as a potential entry point for short-term longs.

Looking ahead, traders may watch for a close above $0.00840 to confirm the bullish reversal, but caution is warranted as the move could face resistance at $0.00845–$0.00850. A failure to hold above $0.00830 could see a pullback into the earlier consolidation range.