Market Overview of Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) on 2025-11-13

Summary
• Marlin/Tether declined from 0.00549 to 0.00537, hitting a key support level with increased volume.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions, while MACD showed bearish momentum.
• Volatility remained contained within Bollinger Bands with no clear breakout.

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at $0.00549 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.00537 by 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $0.00551 and a low of $0.00535 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 54,820,010, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $292,549. Price action suggested a potential reversal near the $0.00537 support level.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakout below $0.00539, with a long lower wick at $0.00535 indicating rejection. The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $0.00543–0.00544, suggesting continued downward pressure. A key support level appears to be forming around $0.00537, with a doji candle indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) were below the current price, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period MA acted as resistance in the $0.00543–0.00544 range. Daily MA indicators showed the price slightly below the 50-day and 100-day MAs, suggesting a potential pullback to test the 200-day MA for support or resistance.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained in negative territory, with a bearish crossover and a weak histogram confirming downward momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 for several intervals, indicating the possibility of a short-term bounce, though this does not guarantee a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively stable, with the price staying within the bands. A contraction occurred earlier in the session, followed by a test of the lower band near $0.00537. This bounce back toward the middle band could signal a short-term stabilisation, though a definitive breakout or breakdown is yet to occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning hours as the price approached the key support level, with a notional turnover of approximately $23,340 observed between 19:15 and 20:00 ET. The volume during the final hour (17:00 ET) confirmed the consolidation near the lower end of the range. However, no divergence was observed between volume and price during the last 15-minute interval, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price retested the 38.2% retracement level at $0.00543 before declining to the 61.8% retracement at $0.00537. On the daily chart, the price appears poised to test the 38.2% level from a recent high, suggesting that a bounce could be supported by this level if buying pressure resumes.

A reversal near $0.00537 may offer a short-term bounce, but bearish momentum remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The interactive backtest report evaluated price action following a close ≤ $0.00537, a key support level. Only one historical instance between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-13 met the criteria, occurring on 2025-11-04. Over the subsequent 7 trading days, the price advanced a cumulative 5.5% with positive returns each day, although the statistical significance is low due to the single sample. This suggests that while a rebound may be possible, the result is not robust and should be treated with caution. The current price action aligns with the historical pattern, but traders should consider the limited sample size when forming expectations.