Market Overview: Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) – 2025-10-14

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at $0.00652 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00648 on October 14 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $0.00694 and the low was $0.00630. Total trading volume reached 24,338,285.0 units with a notional turnover of approximately $169,883.85.

• Price tested the $0.00694 level briefly but failed to hold, retreating into a consolidation phase.
• Intraday volatility expanded after 19:00 ET as prices surged above $0.0067 before pulling back.
• A bearish divergence emerged between price and RSI as prices fell while the indicator showed limited bearish momentum.
• Volume surged during the early evening session, coinciding with the high watermark.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.00687–$0.00685, suggesting potential bearish continuation.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick structure for PONDUSDT shows a clear bearish bias, particularly in the latter half of the session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.00687–$0.00685 during the 21:45–22:00 ET time frame, with the close below the prior candle’s low. This pattern may signal a potential continuation of the downward trend. A doji formed near $0.00676, indicating indecision in the market during the early morning hours.

Notable resistance levels include $0.00687 and $0.00694, both of which were tested but failed to hold. On the support side, key levels include $0.00675 and $0.00664, with the latter having been tested multiple times and holding with relative strength.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The 20-period MA is currently around $0.00651, while the 50-period MA sits at $0.00653. The price has not shown signs of crossing above either line in the last 24 hours.

On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period MAs are converging, with the 200-period MA acting as a key long-term support at $0.00658. If the price continues to decline, a test of the 100-period MA at $0.00650 may occur in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 19:00 ET, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as the price moved lower. The signal line crossed below the MACD line, confirming a bearish crossover. RSI dropped to 48 from above 60 during the evening, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

Despite the bearish divergence in price, RSI did not show extreme oversold conditions, suggesting the market may not be overextended. This may imply further downward pressure is still possible, particularly if the RSI remains below 50.

Bollinger Bands

Price action broke above the upper Bollinger Band at $0.00694 briefly, but this move was not sustained and quickly reversed. The bands have since expanded, with volatility peaking after 19:00 ET and narrowing again during the final hours of the session.

The closing price of $0.00648 sits within the lower half of the bands, suggesting bearish momentum is gaining control. A potential test of the lower Bollinger Band at $0.00640 may be in play, particularly if the RSI continues to weaken.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume occurred during the 21:15–21:30 ET window, with 3,099,268 units traded. This period coincided with the peak price of $0.00694, and the large volume suggests increased participation and conviction in the upward move. However, this price failed to hold, indicating possible bearish exhaustion.

Despite the strong volume, the notional turnover was relatively moderate at $169,883.85, which suggests the price increase may not have been driven by large institutional positions. A divergence between rising volume and declining price emerged in the last 30 minutes, suggesting increased selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent intraday swing from $0.00630 to $0.00694, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are located at $0.00661 and $0.00653, respectively. The 61.8% level has been a key support area, and the price tested this level on multiple occasions.

On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements from the broader swing high to low sit at $0.00658 and $0.00645. The current price of $0.00648 suggests the market is testing the 61.8% retracement level, which could offer near-term support if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the price structure and volatility dynamics observed in the past 24 hours, a potential backtest strategy could be designed to evaluate whether PONDUSDT historically performs better after a failure to hold a key resistance level like $0.00694.

The data-retrieval service indicates an issue with identifying the “PONDUSDT” ticker, likely due to an incomplete or incorrect exchange format. To proceed with the backtest, the correct ticker format—such as “BINANCE_SPOT:PONDUSDT” or “KUCOIN:PONDUSDT”—must be provided. Once confirmed, the backtest could examine how the asset has performed after similar price breakouts and rejections from this level over the past three years.