Market Overview: Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) on 2025-09-19

• Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) declined to a 24-hour low of $0.00841 amid heavy bearish momentum and declining turnover.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the final candle, signaling potential short-term bearish continuation.
• Volatility expanded significantly overnight, pushing prices to the lower Bollinger Band with RSI entering oversold territory.
• Notional turnover surged during the Asian and US sessions, yet volume diverged with price during the final hours.
• Key support now rests at $0.00845, with resistance to watch at $0.00865, aligning with the 61.8% Fib retracement.

15-Minute Price Summary

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at $0.00865 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0084 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The pair hit a high of $0.00877 and a low of $0.00841 over the 24-hour period. Total notional turnover was $179.5 million, with cumulative volume reaching 19.7 million USDT.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming at the close of the 24-hour period, confirming a potential short-term reversal to the downside. Key support levels to monitor include $0.00845 (immediate), $0.00837 (mid-term), and $0.00830 (long-term). Resistance levels are at $0.00865 (61.8% Fib), $0.00871 (previous peak), and $0.00876 (50-period MA on the daily chart).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, suggesting bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a longer-term bullish bias but one that is being challenged by recent bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed below the signal line and remains in negative territory, supporting bearish momentum. The RSI is in oversold territory (~28) on the daily chart, suggesting a potential bounce may be imminent. However, without a strong bullish reversal, the oversold condition may not trigger a meaningful rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the Asian and US sessions, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band. The 15-minute bands widened overnight, with prices closing near the lower band, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was most active during the Asian and US sessions, with large notional turnover observed in the 00:00–06:00 ET window. However, volume diverged with price during the final 6 hours of the period, indicating waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing high of $0.00877 and low of $0.00841 align with the 61.8% (at $0.00865) and 38.2% (at $0.00859) Fibonacci levels. The 50% Fib retracement sits at $0.00859, which may see activity in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern formation at the end of the daily candle, with a stop-loss placed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a target aligned with the 38.2% level. Given today’s bearish engulfing pattern and the oversold RSI, this strategy appears to align with the current technical setup. However, the divergence in volume and the potential for a retracement due to the RSI’s oversold condition suggest prudence, with a recommendation to wait for confirmation from the next 1–2 15-minute candles before acting.