Market Overview for Manchester City Fan Token/Tether (CITYUSDT): 2025-10-09

• CITYUSDT drifted lower by 2.43% in 24 hours, closing at 0.972 after forming bearish candlesticks in the early session.
• Volatility spiked during the 0245–0330 ET window, with a 9.4% pullback to 0.975 on heavy volume.
• RSI (14) hit oversold territory below 30, while MACD flattened, signaling possible near-term consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly as price tested the 20-period lower band, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Notional turnover surged to $190M, indicating increased market participation amid directional uncertainty.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-08, CITYUSDT opened at 0.99 and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour window, hitting a low of 0.963 and closing at 0.972 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total volume reached 245,835, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $237,866. The pair showed clear bearish bias, with key support and resistance levels forming amid increasing volatility and diverging price-volume dynamics.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a descending triangle from 0.992 to 0.972 over the course of the 24-hour window, with a decisive break below the 0.985–0.986 consolidation range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.989 to 0.986 around 16:30 ET, followed by a hanging man at 0.988–0.985 on moderate volume. The 02:45 ET session marked a sharp breakdown to 0.975, where the price found temporary support. A potential bullish reversal at 0.972–0.975 was attempted but failed, indicating a continuation of bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA sat at 0.977, while the 50-period MA moved lower to 0.974, confirming a downward trend. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at 0.978, the 100-period at 0.983, and the 200-period at 0.991, suggesting a broader bearish bias. Price remains below all key moving averages, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET close positioned RSI (14) at 29.4, signaling an oversold condition, but without clear reversal signs. MACD lines flattened out after a sharp bearish crossover at 02:45 ET, indicating fading momentum. The histogram remained negative but contracted slightly in the last 6 hours, suggesting exhaustion of the downward move. However, without a bullish crossover or RSI rebound above 35, bearish control is expected to continue.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from the 0.98–0.99 mid-band to 0.972 at 12:00 ET, with price closing at the lower band. This suggests a period of heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion. A retest of the 0.972–0.973 zone may offer a short-term floor, with a break below that level likely to bring the 0.965–0.963 range into focus.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 52,290.34 at 02:45 ET, coinciding with a 9.4% drop in price to 0.975. Turnover surged to $50,014 during this period, indicating large sell-side participation. However, volume has since declined, and price has failed to follow through, suggesting divergences and weakening conviction on the bearish side. A volume rebound above 5,000 per 15-minute bar could signal renewed selling pressure or a reversal attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels on the 0.992–0.963 swing indicate the 0.976–0.978 level at 38.2%, and 0.972–0.973 at 61.8%. These levels have acted as short-term barriers. A break below 0.972 would target the 0.965–0.963 range, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band and previous support. A failed retest of 0.972–0.973 could lead to a 78.6% retracement at 0.969, which may offer limited support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.972–0.973), with a stop above the 38.2% level (0.976–0.978). The target would be the 78.6% level at 0.969 and ultimately the 0.965–0.963 range. Given the recent bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, as well as the volume contraction after the early morning sell-off, the strategy could be enhanced by incorporating a RSI filter to only enter shorts when RSI dips below 25. This approach could help mitigate false signals and improve risk-adjusted returns.