Market Overview for Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) – October 10, 2025

• MEBTC traded in a tightening range before plunging sharply in late ET hours, closing below key support.
• Volatility spiked during the 15:45–16:00 ET session with a large bearish candle confirming downward momentum.
• RSI hit oversold territory near close, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, though bearish bias remains.
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the breakdown, signaling a high probability directional move.

24-Hour Market Summary

Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) opened at $4.72e-06 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $4.83e-06 by 12:00 ET on October 10. The pair closed at $4.67e-06 after a sharp sell-off in the final hour. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 10,675.30, and notional turnover was roughly $48.60 (assuming $1 = $1). The price action shows a strong bearish bias, with a breakdown below recent support.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw a breakdown from a key horizontal resistance level near $4.80e-06 and a large bearish candle at the close (15:45–16:00 ET) that confirmed the breakdown. This candle had a long lower wick and a tight range before the final push down, signaling strong bearish conviction. A potential support zone is forming near $4.66e-06, which was briefly tested and appears to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have been trending downward, with price closing below both, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs show a similar downtrend, suggesting the bearish momentum is likely to continue unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the late ET hours, confirming the bearish move. The RSI reached an oversold level near 28 at the close, indicating potential for a near-term bounce. However, bearish momentum remains strong, and a close above $4.80e-06 would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction during the mid-ET hours before the final breakdown. The sharp move down in the last hour brought the price below the lower band, indicating high volatility and bearish exhaustion. A rebound above the mid-band could indicate short-term stabilization.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown candle, with a trade of 1,067.52 units contributing to the sharp drop. Notional turnover also increased during this period, confirming the move down. The divergence between volume and price during the prior consolidation period suggests weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of $4.83e-06 and the recent swing low of $4.66e-06, key levels are at 38.2% ($4.76e-06) and 61.8% ($4.71e-06). Price is currently below both levels, suggesting further bearish movement unless a strong bounce occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a breakdown below the 15-minute 20-period SMA with confirmation from RSI reaching overbought levels. Stop-loss is placed above the 50-period SMA, and take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci level. This approach would have captured the recent move from $4.83e-06 to $4.67e-06, validating the effectiveness of the strategy under current market conditions.