Market Overview for Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) – 2025-11-03

• MEBTC closed at $3.98, down 3.5% in 24 hours, with a notable intraday selloff after 03:00 ET.
• RSI hit oversold territory (below 30), suggesting potential short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains intact.
• Volatility spiked as Bollinger Bands widened; volume surged on the decline, confirming bearish sentiment.
• A strong support level formed near $3.85–$3.89, with a test expected in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) traded between $3.89 and $4.17, opening at $4.08 and closing at $3.98. Total trading volume reached 92,012.69, while turnover hit $383.07 (notional). Price action showed a sharp decline after 03:00 ET, driven by increased volume and a bearish breakout below the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA (death cross), reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period EMA now sits near $3.99, offering temporary resistance. A key support level appears to be forming around $3.85–$3.89, marked by two previous bounces and a consolidation phase. A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the selloff at $4.16, while a doji formed at $3.91–$3.93, signaling indecision.

MACD turned negative, with a bearish crossover and a weak histogram, while RSI hit 28 in early morning trading, suggesting oversold conditions. However, a bounce from this level is unlikely to reverse the overall downtrend without a strong bullish reversal pattern or a breakout above the 50 EMA. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, indicating heightened volatility. Price currently sits near the lower band, suggesting potential for a reversion to the mean.

Volume spiked during the major selloff between 03:00 and 05:45 ET, confirming the bearish move. A divergence is visible in the final hours, with price finding a floor at $3.89 and volume declining, hinting at possible exhaustion in the bearish move. Fibonacci retracements from the $3.89 to $4.17 range show key levels at 38.2% ($4.01) and 61.8% ($3.95), both of which have been tested multiple times in the last 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical indicators observed—particularly the RSI hitting oversold territory and the bearish death cross on the EMA—it would be relevant to test a mean-reversion strategy that enters long when RSI drops below 30 and exits when it crosses back above 30. For such a backtest, the price type would be the daily close, and a 20-period look-back for RSI is recommended. Including a 3% stop-loss and a 5% take-profit could help manage risk. Testing this strategy on a broader list of crypto pairs (e.g., BTC-USD, ETH-USD, and altcoins with similar volatility) would provide insights into its robustness across market conditions.