Market Overview: LUNAUSDT (Terra/Tether) on 2026-01-15

Summary
• Price action formed key support at 0.0903 and tested resistance at 0.0915 during the 24-hour window.
• Volume surged during the 07:00–09:00 ET timeframe, confirming a bearish reversal at 0.0902.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight session, indicating potential for a volatility breakout.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.0926 (12:00 ET -1), reached a high of 0.0928, a low of 0.0869, and closed at 0.0883 (12:00 ET). Total volume for the 24-hour window was 12,640,080.09, with a notional turnover of $1,134,647.71.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

Price formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns around the 0.0908 and 0.0911 levels, particularly during the early morning hours. A key support level formed at 0.0903, where the price bounced back twice. A deep bearish candle during the 16:00–16:15 ET timeframe confirmed a breakdown in momentum and pushed the pair into a new 24-hour low.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price then moved rapidly downward, breaking out of the lower band and reaching a 24-hour low.

The widening of the bands in the afternoon indicates increasing volatility, particularly after the 0.0902 support was breached.

Momentum and Indicators

The RSI dipped below 30 for most of the afternoon, pointing to oversold conditions and a potential short-term bounce. The MACD crossed into bearish territory during the morning hours and remained negative for most of the session, reinforcing the downward trend. Divergences between price and volume were observed near 0.0901, with price falling while volume declined.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 07:00–09:00 ET window, confirming a bearish breakdown at 0.0902. The highest notional turnover occurred at 12:15 ET with $113,464.77, driven by a strong sell-off during the early post-market hours. However, volume began to taper off during the last 3 hours of the 24-hour period, indicating reduced conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements on the key 0.0928–0.0869 swing show critical levels at 0.0903 (61.8%) and 0.0915 (38.2%). Price tested 0.0903 multiple times before breaking down, suggesting a potential bounce or test of 0.0903 again in the near term.

Market Outlook and Risk Consideration

With price currently below the 50-period and 20-period moving averages, a continuation of the bearish trend appears likely. However, the RSI’s oversold condition suggests a possible short-term rebound could occur. Investors should closely monitor the 0.0903 level for a potential support test and remain cautious of further downside risk if volume increases on the next bearish leg.