Market Overview for Lumia/Tether (LUMIAUSDT): 24-Hour Technical Update

• LUMIAUSDT opened at 0.143 and traded between 0.133–0.146 before closing at 0.138.
• A bearish continuation is suggested by lower highs and lower lows, with volume confirming the decline.
• Oversold RSI conditions are likely, though exact levels are unconfirmed due to missing data.
• Volatility expanded in the last 12 hours, with price falling below key 15-min Bollinger Band midlines.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at ~0.138 may act as near-term support amid a 0.143–0.133 swing.

Lumia/Tether (LUMIAUSDT) opened at 0.143 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.138 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, trading within a range of 0.133 to 0.146. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 24,140,069.58, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,384,051. The pair has shown a consistent downtrend, with price consolidating near key Fibonacci support at 0.138.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart has shown a consistent bearish bias, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending triangle pattern. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.145 on 193000 ET, signaling potential continuation of the decline. A doji formed at 0.142 on 2025-11-02 013000, indicating a temporary pause in the downtrend but not a reversal. Key support levels have emerged at 0.137, 0.135, and 0.133, with the former two holding through multiple timeframes.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs show bearish alignment, with the 50-period SMA below the 20-period SMA and both below the price. This confirms a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 100 and 200-period SMAs, suggesting a mixed signal. While the longer-term averages remain in a bearish crossover, the 50-period SMA appears to be flattening, hinting at potential near-term consolidation or a minor rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly in the last 12 hours, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contraction observed at 0.142–0.143. Price has since fallen below the middle band and remains near the lower band at 0.136–0.138. This suggests that the market has entered a phase of heightened risk, with price potentially approaching a point of oversold conditions. A rebound above the middle band could signal a short-term reversal, though this remains speculative.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity has been relatively consistent, with a spike in turnover noted between 050000 and 080000 ET as price fell through 0.141. The largest 15-minute volume bar occurred at 073000 ET, with 235,294.86 units traded at an average price of 0.141. Despite the consistent volume, price and volume appear aligned in the bearish direction, with no notable divergence observed. This suggests strong conviction in the downward move, though a reversal may be confirmed if volume spikes with a corresponding price bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.143–0.133 swing, the 61.8% level sits at 0.138, which has held as a key support level over the last 15 minutes. The 38.2% level at 0.139 has also been tested on multiple occasions, with price failing to close above it in recent hours. On the daily chart, a retracement from the 0.146 high to the 0.133 low places key resistance at 0.141 and 0.137, which have also acted as pivot points in the 15-minute chart.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart remains bearish, with the line staying below the signal line and the histogram shrinking in magnitude as price approaches key Fibonacci support. This could indicate exhaustion in the bearish move. RSI data is unavailable for LUMIAUSDT, but based on price action and Bollinger Band positioning, the RSI is likely in overbought territory earlier in the day and currently approaching or in oversold territory. A closing above 0.138 could trigger an RSI rebound, reinforcing a potential short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

To integrate the missing RSI data for a backtest strategy, we could consider using a modified moving average crossover with a volume confirmation filter. A possible hypothesis is to enter a long position when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA and RSI is in oversold territory (<30), with volume confirming the bullish move. Conversely, a short trade would be triggered when the 20-period SMA crosses below the 50-period SMA and RSI is in overbought territory (>70), with volume surging on the bearish move. This would allow for a data-driven approach even with limited RSI access, assuming the ticker symbol is corrected.