Market Overview: Loopring/Tether USDt (LRCUSDT) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Price action showed a bearish reversal from a 24-hour high of $0.103 to a close near $0.0984, with a -4.4% decline.
• Key resistance at $0.101–0.102 held initially but broke into a consolidation phase below $0.100.
• RSI approached oversold territory near 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility dropped in the final 6 hours, with volume thinning as price hovered around $0.0985.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:45 ET and confirmed a short-term bearish trend.

Loopring/Tether USDt (LRCUSDT) opened at $0.1003 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.103 before closing at $0.0984 on 2025-09-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 6,622,763 LRC, with a notional turnover of approximately $648,438 USD.

Structure & Formations

The price structure formed a bearish reversal on the 15-minute chart, particularly at 17:45 ET when a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a breakdown in momentum from the $0.102–0.103 resistance zone. A subsequent doji appeared at 03:45 ET, signaling indecision in the $0.0986–0.0987 range. The price found initial support at $0.0990 but failed to hold it, with a second test at $0.0985 proving more resilient. A key level to watch is $0.0980, which could see a short-term bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (MA) dropped from ~$0.1015 to ~$0.0990 over the 24-hour period, tracking the bearish trend. The 50-period MA remained below the 20-period MA, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, confirming a medium-term bearish tilt. The 100-period MA now sits at ~$0.1005, acting as a potential barrier to further downward movement.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after the 17:45 ET engulfing candle, with bearish divergence between price and momentum. RSI dipped below 30 for several hours around 09:00–11:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a near-term rebound. However, a bearish crossover on the MACD line at 06:15 ET suggests a continuation of the downward trend is more likely in the short term. RSI remains in the 30–40 range, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved within the expanding Bollinger Bands for most of the 24-hour period, with a key contraction occurring at 03:00–04:00 ET around $0.0984–0.0986. This low volatility phase was followed by a sharp move lower, confirming the breakout to the downside. The current price is sitting near the lower band, at ~$0.0984, which may act as a temporary floor. If the price moves below the 20-period MA and into the lower band, it could signal increased bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was strongest during the early afternoon hours (17:00–18:30 ET) and early morning (04:45–05:00 ET), correlating with sharp price moves. The highest single-candle volume (576,341 LRC) occurred at 19:30 ET, coinciding with a downward break from $0.1014 to $0.1009. However, volume declined sharply in the final 6 hours of the period, with turnover thinning out as price moved into consolidation. This suggests a lack of conviction in the current bearish move, but also a potential setup for a rebound from key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.0999–0.103 swing, the 38.2% level (~$0.1012) held briefly but failed to provide a significant rebound. The 61.8% level (~$0.1006) also acted as a temporary support but was broken into consolidation. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent 0.0980–0.1030 move is at ~$0.1005, which is being tested now. A break below $0.0980 would align with the 61.8% level from that range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns occurring at key resistance levels, followed by confirmation through a break of the pattern’s low. A short position is triggered on the close of the confirmation candle, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing candle and a target set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level below. Given the engulfing pattern observed at 17:45 ET and the subsequent break below $0.1009, this setup would have triggered a short signal. The current price near $0.0984 aligns with the 61.8% target, suggesting that the trade could have been profitable under the described strategy.