Market Overview: Loopring/Tether (LRCUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Loopring/Tether (LRCUSDT) closed near its 24-hour low, signaling bearish momentum and distribution.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening bullish momentum with a potential short-term overbought correction.
• Volatility increased in the late hours of ET, with a sharp sell-off observed post 8:00 AM ET.
• Price broke below key Fibonacci support at 0.0935, suggesting further downside potential.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off phase, confirming bearish conviction from institutional and retail players.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14, LRCUSDT opened at 0.0951 and closed at 0.0923 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15, reaching a high of 0.0966 and a low of 0.0916. Total traded volume amounted to 8,693,798.0 LRC, with a notional turnover of approximately $821,063. The pair exhibited a bearish trend, with a strong distribution phase observed in the early morning hours of ET.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed several bearish patterns, including a key bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0966 (05:30–05:45 ET) and a doji at 0.0955 (23:45–00:00 ET), signaling indecision. A strong bearish trend developed post 8:00 AM ET, with price breaking below the 0.0944 support, which had previously acted as a pivot. Key support levels now appear to be at 0.0924 and 0.0915, with the next critical support likely below 0.0915. Resistance is currently concentrated around 0.0935–0.0940, where the price found rejection earlier in the session.

Moving Averages (15-Min Chart)

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both crossed below price, confirming the bearish bias. The 20 EMA currently sits around 0.0932, while the 50 SMA is at 0.0937, both indicating downward momentum. If the price breaks below the 20 EMA, further consolidation near 0.0920 may occur.

Daily Moving Averages

The daily timeframe shows the price well below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, which are at 0.0954, 0.0961, and 0.0970 respectively. This suggests a longer-term bearish trend, with the 200-day MA acting as a strong psychological resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line early in the session, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI has dropped sharply to 42, indicating a moderate oversold condition, but with limited upside unless buyers step in above 0.0935. A retest of the 0.0935–0.0940 zone could spark a short-term bounce, but without a clear breakout above 0.0950, further bearish action is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading in a relatively tight range within the Bollinger Bands until early ET, when volatility spiked and the bands expanded. By midday, price closed near the lower band at 0.0916, suggesting continuation of the bearish bias. A move below the lower band may indicate increased bearish conviction, but a test of the middle band at 0.0940 could trigger a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown at 0.0935 (08:15–08:30 ET), confirming the move lower. Notional turnover also saw a surge, with the 08:15–08:30 ET candle showing one of the largest volumes of the session. Price and volume were aligned during the breakdown, suggesting genuine bearish pressure. However, during the 07:45–08:00 ET period, price dropped to 0.0942 while volume remained moderate, indicating a divergence that may have foreshadowed the larger sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing (high at 0.0966 and low at 0.0916), the price closed near the 61.8% level (0.0934). This suggests that the correction is well into bearish territory and may continue toward the 0.0915–0.0910 zone before any potential bounce. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement from the recent major high is near 0.0920, reinforcing that level as a key support target.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves using a combination of MACD crossover and RSI divergence to identify potential short-term reversal points. Specifically, the strategy enters a short position when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, and the RSI shows bearish divergence (higher highs in price but lower highs in RSI). Stops are placed just above the 20 EMA, with a target at the next Fibonacci level. The recent breakdown at 0.0935 and bearish MACD crossover align with the criteria for a potential short entry. However, the RSI did not show clear divergence at the time of the breakdown, which may reduce the strategy’s effectiveness in this instance. A modified version could incorporate Bollinger Band breakout confirmation to filter low-probability signals.