Market Overview for Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT)

• Price rose from 0.9225 to 0.9971 with a strong 15-minute rebound after midday ET consolidation.
• High volume (over 1.7 million) and turnover spikes confirm key breakouts and bearish retracements.
• RSI reached overbought levels, while MACD diverged from price near the end of the 24-hour window.
• Volatility expanded significantly during morning ET rally, with Bollinger Bands widening to 0.04.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and a bullish harami emerged during late afternoon and early morning ET.

Market Summary

Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) opened at 0.9225 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9971 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 1.035 and the low was 0.9025. Total volume was approximately 16.69 million, with notional turnover reaching $15.4 million (assuming $1 USDT per unit).

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels emerged at 1.000–1.027, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming near 1.035 during the 12:00–13:00 ET window. A bullish harami pattern was observed at 0.930–0.940, suggesting a potential reversal from a downtrend. The price tested multiple support levels (e.g., 0.930, 0.910), with 0.9225 acting as a key floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA around 06:00 ET, signaling a bullish bias. The 50-period MA was near 0.946, with the 20-period at 0.976. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA, indicating medium-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved above zero around 06:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover. However, the histogram began to contract by late morning, hinting at waning momentum. RSI reached overbought levels near 75 in the morning, then pulled back to neutral territory. A bearish divergence formed in the final 3 hours, with price highs failing to exceed earlier levels despite higher RSI readings.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning ET rally, with the bands widening to a range of 0.04. Price moved outside the upper band for the first time at 12:00–13:00 ET, indicating a strong bullish thrust. By mid-afternoon, price consolidated closer to the midline, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.7 million during the 12:00–13:00 ET window, coinciding with the 1.035 high. Notional turnover also spiked, reaching over $1.5 million during this period. However, volume declined in the late afternoon and early morning, despite price action remaining bullish, indicating possible profit-taking or reduced conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels at 0.956 (61.8%) and 0.938 (38.2%) acted as psychological levels during the 06:00–08:00 ET and 19:00–21:00 ET periods, respectively. The 1.035 high represents a 127% Fibonacci extension from the 0.9225–0.956 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy, one could consider using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in conjunction with RSI divergence. A long entry could be triggered when the 20 MA crosses above the 50 MA and RSI exits oversold territory. A short entry could be considered when the MACD histogram begins to contract, price reaches overbought RSI, and volume begins to wane—particularly when divergence appears. A stop-loss could be placed at the nearest Fibonacci support, while a take-profit target could be set at the 1.035 high or the next Fibonacci extension.