Market Overview for Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) on 2025-09-22

• Price declined from 1.0416 to 0.9386 with a volatile bearish bias in the overnight session.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions in the morning, but failed to confirm a reversal.
• Volume surged overnight but diverged from price as it fell to intraday lows.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, indicating rising volatility.
• A key support level appears to have formed around 0.9300-0.9350 during the AM session.

The Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) pair opened at 1.0416 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9386 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, posting a 24-hour low of 0.9223 and high of 1.1096. The total traded volume over the 24-hour period reached approximately 58,229,284.6 units, with a notional turnover of ~61,112,200 USD equivalent based on mid-market prices. The session featured sharp bearish action during the overnight hours, particularly between 00:00 and 06:00 ET.

The structure of the candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours shows a distinct bearish bias, particularly in the early part of the session. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 01:00-03:00 ET, where price moved from ~1.017 to ~0.9983. This was followed by a series of lower lows and lower highs until the early morning hours. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the overnight drop (~0.977) held briefly as resistance before price broke down to a 61.8% retracement level near 0.9300-0.9350. This area now appears to be forming a potential short-term support. A doji formed around 07:00 ET, suggesting indecision and possible reversal, though further confirmation is needed.

The 15-minute RSI dipped into oversold territory during the early AM session (~0.9200) but failed to trigger a strong reversal. The MACD turned negative during the selloff and remained bearish, with the histogram expanding during the most aggressive phase of the decline. Bollinger Bands showed significant widening during the selloff, from ~1.06 to ~0.92, indicating a spike in volatility. The price has since settled near the lower band, suggesting bearish momentum may still be in control. Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period MA well above the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The volume profile shows a pronounced spike during the overnight selloff (00:00–03:00 ET), with volume exceeding 1 million units on multiple occasions during the downward move. However, volume during the 07:00–09:00 ET period was relatively light, suggesting weak follow-through from buyers. A divergence between volume and price is evident in the latter part of the session, where price rebounded slightly but without a corresponding volume increase, indicating weak conviction in the bounce. The total turnover also declined after the 03:00 ET low, despite continued price action, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish move.

Looking ahead, the 0.9300–0.9350 area appears to be the most immediate support. A close below this range could trigger further downside risk, targeting the next Fibonacci level near 0.9250–0.9200. However, a strong rebound above 0.9450 could signal a short-term reversal and retest of the 0.9500 level. Traders should watch for confirmation in the next 24 hours, especially around the 0.9350 and 0.9450 levels. As always, volatility remains high, and sudden reversals could occur with minimal warning.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern, oversold RSI conditions, and volume divergence during the morning hours, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the bearish engulfing candle (around 01:30–02:00 ET), with a stop-loss above the high of the pattern (~0.9983–1.0013) and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~0.9300–0.9350). A trailing stop could be initiated once price breaks the 0.9450 level, turning the position into a long setup if a reversal forms. This strategy would aim to capture the majority of the bearish move while limiting risk with defined stops. A backtest could be conducted using historical 15-minute data over the past three months to assess the robustness of the pattern under similar volatility and volume conditions.