Market Overview for Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY): A Volatile 24-Hour Decline

• Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) fell 9.5% over the past 24 hours amid a broad downward trend and high volatility.
• Price tested key support levels, including a 775.7–783.5 range, with bearish momentum evident on RSI and MACD.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish bias, though turnover remained muted during consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened, signaling elevated volatility, with price near the lower band for much of the session.
• Evening Star patterns emerged, suggesting potential continuation of the bearish trend in the near term.

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at 823.6 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 787.4 on 2025-10-14 at the same time, reaching a high of 850.8 and a low of 768.7. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 1,070.67, with a notional turnover of 915,136.2 JPY. Price action displayed a strong bearish bias, characterized by several key bearish formations and diverging momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed multiple bearish signals. A key support level formed between 775.7 and 783.5, with several retests and failed bounces suggesting a breakdown in conviction. Notable candlestick patterns such as the "Evening Star" appeared during the early morning hours, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. Additionally, a long bearish shadow in the candle closing at 771.6 at 13:45 ET signaled strong selling pressure.

The price range from 801.7 to 797.4 also acted as a resistance-turned-support zone, but failed to hold back the bearish momentum after multiple attempts. A bearish engulfing pattern at 08:45 ET confirmed the shift in sentiment, and the price remained below all key moving averages for much of the session.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20 MA crossed below the 50 MA during the selloff, forming a bearish death cross.

The MACD line crossed below the signal line mid-session, confirming a downtrend. The histogram showed a widening bearish momentum, with strong bearish divergence during the late ET hours.

The RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a meaningful reversal, suggesting a lack of buying interest. The RSI also showed bearish divergence during the morning selloff, further confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, reflecting heightened volatility. Price touched the lower band multiple times, with a failed rebound at 775.7. The width of the bands suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead, with a likely retest of 775.7 as a key support level.

Volatility spiked during the early morning hours, with the largest drop occurring between 06:30 ET and 07:00 ET. However, volume during this period was relatively low, suggesting a potential exhaustion of short-term bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour swing from 850.8 to 768.7, the 38.2% level (815.4) acted as a short-term resistance, while the 61.8% level (793.8) formed a potential support zone. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level before breaking below it, suggesting a deeper correction may be in play. A retest of the 38.2% level may act as a trigger for a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly between 06:30 ET and 07:00 ET, with a volume of 210.92 confirming the bearish move. However, turnover remained relatively low during the consolidation phase, signaling a potential loss of short-term conviction. The volume-low divergence during the early ET hours suggests a possible near-term reversal, though further bearish confirmation is needed.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the emergence of several Evening Star patterns during this 24-hour period—most notably at 02:30 ET and 05:00 ET—it would be valuable to run a backtest on this pattern specifically for LPTJPY. By applying the pattern to daily close prices and using a risk-neutral event-based backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14, we could analyze the average post-pattern performance. This would help quantify the bearish continuation probability and assess whether the pattern holds predictive power in this pair. If confirmed, such a strategy could be integrated with RSI divergence and MACD signals to improve signal timing and risk management.