Market Overview for Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) – October 29, 2025

• Price action declined sharply after a morning rally, closing lower at 765.1
• Key resistance stalled buying at 781.1 while support held temporarily at 742.6
• Momentum weakened, with RSI trending bearish and MACD diverging from price
• Volatility expanded significantly post-19:45 ET, with large volume at 765.1
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 757.9 and 751.8 suggest possible near-term support

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at 772.8 on October 28, 12:00 ET, and closed 24 hours later at 765.1. The pair reached a high of 781.1 and a low of 742.6, with a total volume of 1,855.84 and a notional turnover of 1,436,726.0 JPY over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a distinct bearish reversal pattern, with a sharp break of key support at 760.0. A Bearish Engulfing pattern formed after a morning rally, which was followed by a sustained decline. A large bearish candle on October 28, 19:45 ET (765.1) marked a significant expansion in volatility and a key turning point. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate 757.9 (61.8%) and 751.8 (100%) as potential near-term support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA at 772.0 and the 200-period MA at 765.0 show the price is approaching a key convergence zone. A potential bounce off the 200-day MA could offer short-term buying opportunities.

MACD & RSI

The RSI closed below 30, signaling oversold conditions, though the MACD has remained negative and diverged from price after the 19:45 ET move. This divergence could either indicate a deepening bearish trend or a temporary overextension. A bullish RSI reversal could hint at a short-term bounce, but momentum remains bearish overall.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly with the October 28, 19:45 ET candle, pushing the price well below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands have since widened, suggesting continued price dispersion and uncertainty. If the price stays below the lower band for another session, it could trigger deeper bearish expectations.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 765.1 (19:45 ET) with 438.38 units traded and again at 765.1 (12:00 ET) with 188.41 units. These confirm the importance of the 765.1 level. However, volume declined significantly after 10:00 ET on October 29, suggesting a possible exhaustion of the bearish move. Divergence between price and volume is not pronounced, but buyers appear hesitant near the lower Bollinger Band.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 781.1–742.6 swing shows 757.9 (61.8%) as the first potential support and 751.8 (100%) as the next. A break below 751.8 could target 746.4 (123.6%), with a bearish continuation likely if the 200-day MA is broken. Conversely, a close above 765.1 with strong volume may test the 768.0 level, where the upper band and 20-period MA congregate.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy of selling upon confirmation of a Bearish Engulfing pattern and holding for five days has shown a 53.19% win rate and an average return of -0.86% per trade. While this approach manages risk by capturing short-term bearish reversals, its limited profitability suggests it may be more suitable as a risk-managed component of a broader strategy. Given today’s confirmation of such a pattern, traders may consider short-term exits or protective hedges, though the current oversold conditions suggest caution before initiating new bearish positions.