Market Overview for Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) – 2025-09-13

• • •

• Price surged to 1104.4 amid strong volume, but consolidation suggests potential near-term resistance.
• RSI and MACD show overbought conditions, raising the probability of short-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the final hours, indicating rising volatility ahead of potential breakouts.
• Volume was uneven, with heavy buying in the early hours and fading momentum in the late session.
• Key support at 1080.0 and resistance at 1093.1 defined intraday range, with a potential shift in bias observed.

The LPTJPY pair opened at 1051.7 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-12 and closed at 1100.1 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 1104.4 and a low of 1051.7. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10,676.87, and notional turnover reached approximately ¥11,787,525.23. The pair experienced a notable upward bias, with multiple bullish formations and a late-day reversal to bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The intraday OHLCV data reveals a strong bullish trend forming in the early hours, with a sequence of engulfing patterns and a bullish harami forming between 18:00 and 20:00 ET. These patterns suggest institutional accumulation and short-term momentum to the upside. Later in the session, a bearish harami and a shooting star appeared around 15:00 and 16:00 ET, indicating resistance at 1093.1–1100.1, with a key support level forming at 1080.0. A doji at 06:00 ET marks a potential reversal point, suggesting the market may consolidate before a new directional move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) crossed above the 50-period MA, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA rose from 1070.0 to 1085.0 over the session, while the 20-period MA surged to 1090.0, suggesting the trend remains intact for now. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 1068.0 and the 200-period MA at 1040.0, indicating a broader bullish bias from a medium-term perspective. The 100-period MA at 1072.0 acts as a mid-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive after 17:00 ET, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. However, by 11:00 AM ET, the histogram began to contract, indicating a potential slowdown in upward momentum. The RSI reached 72–75, suggesting overbought conditions. This aligns with the 15-minute bearish harami and doji, indicating a probable correction to key support levels. A decline to 65–68 in RSI could signal a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

The MACD crossover and RSI divergence point to a high probability of a pullback in the near term, with potential for a bounced rally if the support at 1080.0 holds.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a volatility contraction in the early hours of the session, followed by a sharp expansion after 10:00 AM ET. Price moved above the upper band at one point, reaching 1104.4, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, a rejection off the upper band at 1102.4–1104.4 suggests a potential topping formation. The lower band settled near 1075.0–1080.0, a key support level confirmed by volume and candle patterns. If the price falls below this range, the bands could contract again, signaling a possible bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly uneven, with a large spike in the early hours (between 18:00 and 20:00 ET), when the price surged from 1054.7 to 1082.5, indicating strong accumulation. Volume dropped off sharply in the early morning hours, with a notable zero-volume candle at 22:00 and 22:15 ET. This volume divergence from rising prices in the early morning hours could indicate short-term exhaustion.

Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at ¥435,680 for the 10:15–10:30 AM ET bar, which marked a high of 1102.1. This suggests strong institutional involvement at that time, but the decline in turnover after 10:30 ET implies waning interest. A divergence between volume and price in the late morning may suggest a potential correction or consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 15-minute swing from 1051.7 to 1104.4, the key levels at 38.2% (1078.9) and 61.8% (1093.1) were both touched during the session. The 1093.1 level acted as a strong resistance, and the price pulled back after touching it. The 1078.9 level was a key support that the price bounced off during the early morning hours. A break below 1078.9 could see the next support at 1072.2, while a break above 1093.1 would point to 1101.3–1104.5 as the next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bullish engulfing patterns and overbought RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry at the open of a bullish engulfing candle, with a stop-loss just below the low of the engulfing candle and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Alternatively, a short entry could be triggered after the shooting star and bearish harami at 15:00–16:00 ET, with a stop above the high of the pattern and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. These strategies would benefit from a volume filter to ensure that only high-volume candles are traded, increasing the probability of a successful outcome.