Market Overview: Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis (2025-10-14)

• Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) traded in a bearish range amid moderate volatility, closing near session lows.
• Price broke below key intraday resistance, with bearish momentum intensifying after 5.533.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions at the session close, with volume suggesting potential near-term reversal.
• Bollinger Band contractions suggest tightening volatility, followed by a sharp expansion into 5.20–5.30.
• Fibonacci levels at 5.12 and 5.06 could offer short-term support amid prolonged bearish bias.

Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) opened at 5.391 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and traded between 5.386 and 5.556, closing at 5.144 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The pair saw a 24-hour trading volume of 205,895.63 and a notional turnover of $1,076,069.83. The price moved in a broad bearish trend with a late-night breakdown below the 5.40–5.45 psychological level.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bearish bias with a key resistance level forming around 5.533 and 5.566, which were tested multiple times before a decisive breakdown. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 5.533 after 2025-10-13 at 22:45 ET, signaling a shift in sentiment. A doji appeared at 5.556, indicating indecision, but this was followed by a sharp decline into the early hours of 2025-10-14. Notable support levels include 5.40 (tested multiple times), 5.30 (broken once), and now 5.20–5.25, where price appears to have found a temporary floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages remained bearish for the majority of the session, with price consistently below both. A brief crossover occurred at 2025-10-14 05:30–06:00 ET, but this proved short-lived and was quickly invalidated. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs all show a downward trend, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line and remained negative for most of the session, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a consistent contraction in bullish momentum and an expansion in bearish strength after 2025-10-14 01:00 ET. RSI approached oversold territory late in the session, peaking at a low of 27.5, indicating that the pair may be nearing a short-term bottom.

The RSI divergence and the breakdown below the 5.40 psychological level suggest potential for a continuation of the bearish trend. However, the oversold reading may attract short-term buyers looking for a bounce near 5.10–5.15. Investors should watch for a rejection at 5.15–5.20 and consider potential follow-through selling if the 5.06–5.01 support fails.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility tightened significantly during the early hours of 2025-10-14, with price trading within a narrow Bollinger Band contraction near 5.40–5.43. This was followed by a sharp expansion to 5.10–5.30, indicating a breakout and increased selling pressure. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish outlook. If volatility continues to expand, traders may anticipate further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the breakdown below 5.533 and again during the sharp decline from 5.50–5.20. Notably, the largest volume spike occurred at 2025-10-14 06:30–07:00 ET, with over 27,500 units traded at a weighted average of 5.10–5.22. This coincided with a significant drop in price and suggests institutional selling. Notional turnover also showed a strong correlation with the price drop, confirming the strength of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 5.556 and low of 5.40 suggest key levels at 5.50 (61.8%), 5.48 (38.2%), and 5.45 (23.6%). Price broke below all these levels, and the 5.45–5.40 zone appears to be a consolidation area. On the larger daily swing, key Fibonacci levels include 5.30 (61.8%) and 5.20 (78.6%), both of which were tested during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A swing-based backtesting strategy applied to this pair shows mixed results: a total return of -61.3% over the testing period, with an annualized return of 15.7%. The high volatility and sharp drawdowns—most notably a max drawdown of 81.5%—underscore the risk involved. The average trade was positive at +1.8%, with a 66% win rate, but large losses skewed the overall performance. The backtest assumes a 60-bar swing window, 20% stop-loss, 100% take-profit, and 60-day max hold—parameters that may need adjustment to align with the recent bearish bias and lower volatility. Traders may want to consider shorter holding periods or tighter stop-loss levels in a more volatile or bearish environment like the one observed.