Market Overview for Livepeer (LPTUSD): Volatility Rebounds as Structure Weakens

• Price fell 1.2% in 24 hours, opening at $7.139 and closing at $6.963
• Volatility remained low for most of the session, with minimal range until late ET
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 12:00 ET –1, confirmed by 1.5% downward move
• Turnover and volume remained subdued, with no significant spikes
• RSI near neutral zone suggests no immediate overbought or oversold conditions

Opening and Price Action Summary

Livepeer (LPTUSD) opened at $7.139 at 12:00 ET –1 and closed at $6.963 by 12:00 ET today. The price reached a high of $7.139 and a low of $6.954 during the session. Total volume was 195.36, and notional turnover (amount) was 2,528.16. The 24-hour price move was bearish, closing below key intraday support levels.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the start of the session (12:00 ET –1), as a bullish candle was followed by a larger bearish candle. This pattern was confirmed by the 15-minute timeframe and led to a 1.5% drop in price. Following this, price remained range-bound for several hours before a late-session rally brought it back closer to key levels. The formation at 09:30 ET, where a bullish candle broke the $7.032 range after a consolidation period, signaled potential reversal sentiment.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, hovering just below the price action, indicating a lack of clear momentum. The 20-period MA crossed the 50-period MA at 11:15 ET, signaling a short-term bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are converging near $6.96–6.98, suggesting the price is near critical support.

Bollinger Bands remained narrow for most of the session, showing compressed volatility, before expanding at 09:30 ET. Price briefly moved into the upper band at that time but closed near the lower band, reflecting a bearish consolidation pattern.

Momentum and Fibonacci Analysis

Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained neutral throughout the session, fluctuating between 50 and 57, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. However, the lack of a sharp move above 60 suggests buyers were hesitant. The MACD crossed into negative territory at 02:45 ET, with a bearish histogram, reinforcing the sell-side bias.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing from $7.139 to $6.954 showed the 61.8% level at $7.032, which was broken early in the session. The daily chart Fibonacci levels on the broader move from $7.105 to $6.954 indicated the 38.2% retracement at $7.037 and 61.8% at $7.066. Price action closed near the 38.2% level, suggesting a possible support test for tomorrow.

Backtest Hypothesis

A bearish engulfing pattern has been the focus of a recent backtest strategy. The system entered short positions on every confirmed bearish engulfing pattern since 2022 and held for up to 3 days. Results showed a total return of –64.68%, an annualised return of –14.56%, and a max drawdown of 70.23%. The Sharpe ratio of –0.44 confirms the strategy’s underperformance. The recent bearish engulfing at 12:00 ET –1 aligns with this pattern, but the backtest results suggest a cautious approach. Traders using this pattern may face significant drawdowns if used as the sole entry signal.

Forward Outlook and Risk

Over the next 24 hours, Livepeer may test the $6.954 level for potential support and could attempt a rally toward the $7.032–7.066 range. However, with volume remaining low and momentum indicators neutral, the market appears to be in a consolidation phase. Investors should monitor for any breakout or breakdown from these levels, as they could signal the next move in LPTUSD.