Market Overview for Livepeer (LPTUSD) on 2025-09-04

• LPTUSD opens at $6.882, reaches a high of $7.381, and closes at $6.889 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price consolidates near $6.889 with a bearish momentum shift reflected in the RSI and MACD.
• Volume spikes near key resistance levels but shows divergence from price action toward the close.
• Bollinger Bands widen during the midday rally, indicating increased volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerges at the daily high, signaling possible reversal.

Livepeer (LPTUSD) opened at $6.882 on 2025-09-03 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $7.381, and closed at $6.889 as of 2025-09-04 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 569.25 and a turnover of $3,860.88. Price action revealed a strong attempt to break above $7.161, a key resistance level, but failed due to a bearish engulfing pattern and diverging momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $7.381 after a brief rally from $7.035, indicating potential short-term bearish bias. A doji formed near $7.087, suggesting indecision. The price found support at $6.889 multiple times, which appears to be a short-term floor. A descending triangle and a bearish flag pattern are visible in the 15-minute OHLC structure, pointing to a possible continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, price briefly pierced above the 50-period SMA but was quickly rejected. The 20-period SMA remains below the 50-period SMA, indicating bearish momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the afternoon, confirming the downtrend. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) late in the session, but failed to trigger a strong rebound—suggesting a potential lack of conviction in the short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly between 19:15 and 20:15 ET as price surged from $7.035 to $7.381. During this period, the Bollinger Bands widened, and the price traded above the upper band—a sign of overbought conditions. However, the price retracted sharply and ended the day near the lower band, suggesting that volatility is now contracting and bearish pressure is likely to continue.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked during key price moves—most notably at $7.381 (66.62 volume), $7.149 (69.22 volume), and $7.035 (60.06 volume). However, the final leg down from $7.087 to $6.889 occurred with relatively low volume, indicating a possible bear trap or a lack of conviction in the downward move. Turnover increased during the rally phase but dropped off during the consolidation, reinforcing the volume divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $6.828–$7.381 swing, price found resistance at 78.6% (~$7.161) and later tested 61.8% (~$7.035). On the daily chart, the $6.889 level corresponds to the 23.6% retracement of the broader $6.587–$7.381 move, suggesting it could hold temporarily.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a break below key support levels such as $6.989 or $6.889, with tight stop-loss orders placed above the nearest resistance, typically the 50-period SMA or 61.8% Fibonacci level. A trailing stop could be triggered if the price bounces and holds above the 20-period SMA, which would suggest a potential reversal. This strategy aligns with the bearish engulfing and divergent momentum observed during the rally. Long positions could be considered only on a breakout above $7.161 with confirmation from the RSI and volume.