Market Overview: Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) on 2025-09-05

• Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) closed 24-hour session up 4.3%, forming bullish momentum with volume increasing 2.1x from the prior 24 hours.
• Price surged above key resistance at 16505 and 16600, with RSI entering overbought territory and MACD showing strong positive divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the final hours, signaling heightened volatility, while volume spiked sharply during the 22:00–08:00 ET window.
• A bullish engulfing pattern confirmed the reversal at 16504, with the 20-period EMA providing immediate support for potential continuation.

Opening Summary and Price Action

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 16352 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16820 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05. The 24-hour session saw a high of 16820 and a low of 16307, with the price climbing by 4.3%. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 318.45, while total turnover (notional) reached approximately 5,277,460 Yen. The late-night and early-morning hours saw a notable increase in both volume and price.

Structure & Formations

A key support level appears to have formed at 16504, where a bullish engulfing pattern was confirmed. This suggests a reversal in the downward trend that was in place earlier in the session. Resistance levels are now at 16608, 16700, and 16800, with the latter acting as a psychological ceiling. A bearish divergence in the later hours of the session at 16820 suggests caution for buyers. The 16400–16504 range may now serve as a dynamic support corridor.

Moving Averages and Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period EMA (15-minute chart) have both crossed above the 16500 level, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 50-period EMA is currently at 16580, while the 20-period EMA is at 16610, indicating strong upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA is above the 100-EMA and well ahead of the 200-EMA, reinforcing a long-term bullish trend.

The MACD (12,26,9) turned positive late in the session, with a histogram showing strong upward divergence. The RSI (14) reached overbought territory at 76 near the close, suggesting short-term caution. However, the strong volume confirmation suggests that the overbought level could hold and serve as a continuation support.

Bollinger Bands (20, 2) expanded significantly during the 22:00–08:00 ET window, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the upper band, suggesting a continuation of the upward move if the next 24-hour session sees a close above 16800.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover increased sharply during the 07:00–08:30 ET window and the 09:00–10:00 ET window, aligning with the final leg of the price rally. Notional turnover peaked at around 16820, with the volume confirming the strength of the move. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, indicating healthy conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 16307 to 16820, key levels include 16590 (38.2%), 16700 (61.8%), and 16820 (100%). The 16590 level may see a pullback or consolidation, while the 16700 level offers a stronger test of buyers. Daily Fibonacci levels from the prior 30-day swing align with the 16600–16700 range, offering confirmation that the current move is within a strong Fibonacci context.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong positive MACD, RSI overbought condition, and bullish engulfing pattern at 16504, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a breakout buy signal once the 16600 psychological level is confirmed with above-average volume and a close above that level. A stop-loss could be placed at the 16504 level to protect against a reversal, with a target at 16700 or 16800. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the upward trend while mitigating risk with clear risk-reward parameters.