Market Overview for Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) - 2025-11-03

• Price action: LTCUSDT declined from $98.53 to $88.24 amid a sharp selloff in the final hours of the 24-hour window.
• Momentum: RSI dropped below 30 for prolonged periods, signaling oversold conditions and weakening buying interest.
• Volatility: Bollinger Band contraction gave way to a sharp expansion, reflecting increased uncertainty and downward drift.
• Volume: Turnover spiked sharply during the selloff, aligning with price declines and suggesting increased bearish participation.
• Pattern: A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the $99.02–$98.26 range, reinforcing the downward trend and bearish sentiment.

The 24-hour session for Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) opened at $98.21 and peaked at $99.79 before falling sharply to a low of $85.35 and closing at $88.26 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume reached 306,854.12 units, while notional turnover was $25,914,496. The market exhibited a pronounced downtrend, driven by a late-night selloff that accelerated volatility and tested key support levels.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between $99.02 and $98.26, suggesting strong bearish conviction. Notable support levels include $97.80 and $95.26, both of which held briefly but were ultimately breached. Resistance is now at $98.26, with a potential bounce expected if buyers reenter the fray.

Moving averages reinforce the bearish tone: the 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, and both are trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA crossed below the 100-day and 200-day MAs, signaling a bearish crossover. Price is currently trading well below these key trend indicators.

MACD has turned negative and is diverging from price, suggesting that the bearish momentum may extend further. RSI has remained in oversold territory for several periods, though this does not guarantee an immediate rebound. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in response to the sharp price drop, indicating heightened volatility and uncertainty. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting that bearish pressure remains intact.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high of $99.79 to the swing low of $85.35 highlight potential areas of interest. The 61.8% level sits at $93.24, a potential short-term target for a countertrend rally. The 38.2% level at $94.52 may act as a key intermediate resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger 2024–2025 bear trend sits near $96.70, a potential psychological hurdle.

Given the bearish structure, weak momentum, and high volatility, LTCUSDT may continue to test lower support levels in the near term. A potential rebound near $88.26 could offer a short-term bounce, but the overall bias remains negative. Investors should be cautious of further downside risks and consider setting stops below key Fibonacci levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-Oversold 15-minute strategy, which aims to capitalize on overextended bearish momentum, has shown poor performance in historical tests, delivering an annualized return of –7.0% since 2022. While the recent 24-hour price drop has pushed RSI into oversold territory multiple times, the strategy’s historical track record of losses outweighing gains and its high drawdowns raise concerns about its effectiveness in current conditions. Given the current bearish drift and lack of strong reversal signals, the strategy’s assumptions about mean reversion appear to be challenged. This underlines the importance of additional risk management tools or filtering criteria to avoid entering trades during strong downtrends like the one seen for LTCUSDT.