Market Overview for Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• • •

• Price fell to 101.67 before rebounding, forming key support near 101.5–101.7.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum mid-day, but divergence emerged in the second half.
• Volatility expanded during the early session with a peak turnover of 30,450.93 LTC.
• Price retested prior swing highs at 103.00–103.20, failing to break through.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction during consolidation near 102.40–102.80.

Opening Summary

Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) opened at 104.54 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between 101.67 and 104.71 during the 24-hour period, closing at 103.39 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Total volume for the session was 186,842.5 LTC, while notional turnover reached $19.4M. The session was characterized by early bearish pressure, a consolidation phase, and late afternoon bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price of LTCUSDT experienced a sharp decline from 104.52 to 102.12 within the first 90 minutes, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. It then entered a consolidation phase near 102.40–102.80, where a large-volume doji at 102.42 signaled indecision. Subsequent bullish momentum pushed the price back to 103.50–103.63, with a potential bullish flag pattern forming during the recovery phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly earlier in the session, but by the late afternoon, price retested and closed above both, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 MA lines are in a bearish alignment, indicating LTC is still under downward pressure in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming bearish momentum, but reversed back into positive territory during the final 6 hours. RSI dipped into oversold territory at 29, then climbed to 54, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. However, RSI has not yet entered overbought territory, indicating the bullish rally may have limited upside.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction between 102.40 and 102.80, signaling a low-volatility consolidation phase. As price broke above this range, the bands expanded again, suggesting renewed directional movement. The closing price of 103.39 sits near the upper band of the latest expansion, indicating overbought conditions and a potential pullback in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early bearish move (30,450.93 LTC at 17:30 ET) and again during the bullish recovery phase (10,473.98 LTC at 23:45 ET). Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming price movements. A divergence appears in the second half of the session—price rose, but volume decreased slightly—suggesting weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 104.71 high to the 101.67 low are:- 23.6% at 103.50- 38.2% at 103.07- 50% at 103.19- 61.8% at 102.68

Price has shown resistance at 103.00–103.20 and is approaching the 38.2% retracement level. A break above 103.20 could confirm a more bullish bias, but a failure to hold above this level may see a retest of the 102.68 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions after a confirmed break above the 20-period moving average, combined with a bullish engulfing pattern and a closing price above 61.8% Fibonacci level. Stops are placed below the 50-period MA, and take-profit targets are set at the next Fibonacci extension level. Based on today’s pattern and structure, a similar strategy would have been triggered around 19:30 ET with a target near 103.70 and a stop near 102.40. The setup partially succeeded as price reached the target but failed to hold above it, indicating the strategy may require tighter stop-loss parameters or additional confirmation filters.