Summary
• Price action dipped to 0.2650 before recovering to 0.2719, forming a bullish rebound.
• RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential reversal; MACD showed bearish divergence earlier.
• Volume spiked during key price swings, confirming bearish breakdowns and bullish rebounds.
Opening Summary
Lista DAO/Tether (LISTAUSDT) opened at 0.2693 on 12:00 ET – 1, reached a high of 0.2733 and a low of 0.2641, closing at 0.2644 on 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 1,654,423.8 tokens traded with a notional turnover of approximately $444,956.20.
Structure & Formations
Price moved within a defined range between 0.2650 (support) and 0.2733 (resistance). A key bullish reversal pattern appeared at 0.2650, with price bouncing off this level multiple times. A long lower shadow at 0.2680 suggested temporary buying interest.
Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line in early hours, suggesting a short-term bullish tilt. However, the 50-period line held above the current price, indicating caution. Daily MA(50) and MA(200) remain above current levels, signaling a longer-term bearish bias.
MACD & RSI
MACD showed bearish divergence in early morning hours (0.2705–0.2662) but turned bullish in the late afternoon as price rebounded. RSI bottomed near 30 at 0.2650, suggesting oversold conditions and a potential reversal. Momentum remains fragile, with RSI hovering just above 40.
Bollinger Bands
Price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, indicating low volatility. A contraction in band width occurred around 0.2660, followed by a sharp move upward. Price now resides just below the middle band, indicating consolidation after the rebound.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during key price swings: 133,841.4 tokens at 0.2705 (bullish) and 155,737.2 tokens at 0.2644 (bearish). Notional turnover confirmed these price actions, with higher turnover aligning with key reversals. A divergence was observed during the 0.2662–0.2669 move, where volume failed to support the price action, suggesting weak conviction.
Fibonacci Retracements
Recent 15-minute swings showed price retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.2680 before bouncing. The daily swing from 0.2705 to 0.2644 saw price holding above the 38.2% level at 0.2675, suggesting short-term support is intact. A break below 0.2650 could lead to a test of the 61.8% level at 0.2632.
Backtest Hypothesis
The MACD Bottom Divergence + RSI < 30 strategy, with a fixed 15-day hold period, delivered a 27.4% total return and an average gain of +7.37 per trade. While the strategy appears resilient in oversold environments, its performance was skewed by large drawdowns (43.5%). This aligns with today's session, where RSI hit <30 and price bounced off 0.2650. Traders may consider monitoring divergence and oversold levels closely, especially if volume continues to support these signals.
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