Market Overview for Lista DAO/Tether (LISTAUSDT)

• Price opened at $0.2478, dropped to $0.2392, and closed at $0.2392.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with key support at $0.2390.
• Volume surged during downward swings but failed to confirm bullish bounces.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the recent dip, hinting at potential continuation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlighted critical resistance around $0.2450 and support at $0.2390.

The Lista DAO/Tether (LISTAUSDT) pair opened at $0.2478 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2392 on 2025-11-13 at the same time, with a high of $0.2499 and a low of $0.2390. Total 24-hour volume reached 2.48 million, and notional turnover amounted to $635,600. The session featured a sustained bearish bias, driven by consistent selling pressure and a lack of short-covering.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with a key support level forming around $0.2390—marked by a rejection candle on the 2025-11-13 17:00 ET 15-minute candle. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after a failed bounce from $0.2400, suggesting further downside could be in play. A doji near $0.2450 on the morning of 2025-11-13 signaled indecision, though bearish momentum quickly followed.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart are both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day SMAs are converging near $0.2450, acting as a potential dynamic resistance level. A breakdown below this area would increase the probability of a test of the 200-day SMA at $0.2400.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained below the signal line, with bearish divergences noted between the RSI and price during the late-night recovery attempts. RSI has settled in oversold territory, currently at ~28, suggesting the move lower may be nearing a temporary pause, though a sustained rally would need to outperform the 15-minute candle closes above $0.2450 to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased in the latter half of the session, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and price trading near the lower band. A narrow consolidation before the breakout indicated a potential continuation pattern, with the lower band currently supporting the $0.2390 level. A close above the middle band would be needed to signal a reversal in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the initial decline and again in the late evening, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring on the candle that closed at $0.2404. Notional turnover spiked concurrently, confirming the strength of bearish momentum. However, price failed to respond to these volume surges with higher lows, indicating weak conviction on the buying side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the recent 15-minute swing from $0.2499 to $0.2390 highlight key psychological levels. The 61.8% retracement at $0.2443 has shown resistance, while the 38.2% retracement at $0.2466 is currently acting as a potential pivot. Daily Fibonacci levels, particularly the 61.8% retracement from the broader downtrend, align with the 200-day SMA and could be a critical test in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a “Sell on MACD Top Divergence” shorting strategy on LISTAUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13 reveals a net negative outcome, with a total return of approximately -22.9% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.33. This suggests that while MACD divergences may occasionally capture bearish momentum, the strategy alone is insufficient to overcome the asset’s volatility and frequent false signals. The average losing trade (-14.4%) outweighed average winners (+12.9%), indicating the need for supplementary filters, tighter stop-loss levels, or shorter holding periods to improve performance.