Market Overview for Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT)

• Price declined from 0.577 to 0.520 with a bearish bias and weak volume.
• Strong support formed near 0.515–0.517 as price bounced from that level twice.
• MACD and RSI suggest oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the decline, indicating a possible breakout.
• Turnover surged during the early morning decline but has since slowed, reducing volatility.

24-Hour Summary and Opening

Over the last 24 hours, Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) opened at 0.571 and declined to a low of 0.511, closing at 0.520 as of 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.511 and 0.577, with a total volume of 658,042.8 and a notional turnover of ~$340,823. The move saw a consistent bearish bias, particularly in the 10–11 PM ET window, where a sharp selloff unfolded. The price appears to have found short-term support near 0.515–0.517, with a minor rebound forming in the morning hours.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period showed a bearish bias, with several key levels in play. A major support zone appears to have formed around 0.515–0.517 after the price bounced from this level during both morning and afternoon sessions. A doji candle formed at 0.518 around 12:30 ET, suggesting indecision in the market at that level. A larger bearish engulfing pattern was observed between 10:30–11:00 ET, reinforcing the downward momentum. The price has been unable to reclaim the 0.525–0.530 resistance zone, which had previously acted as a ceiling.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both moved lower, confirming the bearish momentum. Price action has remained below both, with the 50-period MA pulling support down to 0.517–0.518. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages remain bearish, suggesting that any short-term bounce is likely to remain range-bound. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early morning hours, reinforcing the bearish trend. RSI readings dropped into the oversold zone below 30 for much of the session, with the indicator showing a slight upward tilt in the morning, potentially hinting at a minor short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 0.52–0.53 during the early morning hours before the sharp selloff, suggesting a high-probability move. Price broke out of the lower band at 0.515–0.516 during the early morning decline, confirming the downward momentum. Volatility has since increased, with the bands expanding again. The current price of 0.520 resides near the middle band, suggesting that the market is stabilizing slightly after the initial drop. The volatility expansion supports the idea of a temporary pause in the decline, but the overall bearish bias remains intact.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning selloff, with the most active 15-minute window showing over 100,000 contracts traded. Turnover also increased significantly during this period, with notional value rising to ~$40,000. However, volume has since decreased, with the last few hours showing weaker activity and a lack of strong directional conviction. The divergence between the price and volume suggests that the selloff may be nearing exhaustion, particularly if the price holds above 0.515–0.517.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.577 to 0.511 shows key levels at 0.544 (38.2%) and 0.529 (61.8%), both of which the price has failed to reclaim. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing from 0.60 to 0.51 sits at 0.547, which aligns with the earlier failed bounce. The price may face resistance at the 0.544–0.547 level before attempting a meaningful recovery. The current price near 0.520 is still in the lower half of the retracement range, suggesting further consolidation or another test of support is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and oversold RSI readings, a potential RSI-based backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when the 15-minute RSI crosses above 30 and exits on a 5-day hold. However, given the current market context, this strategy may require a reversal filter—such as a close above the 50-period moving average or a bullish candlestick pattern—to confirm a trend change. A more realistic approach for LQTYUSDT would involve shorting opportunities as RSI remains elevated above 60 and price stays below key moving averages. To implement this, the correct exchange data (e.g., Binance or Coinbase) for LQTYUSDT must be sourced. Confirming the supported ticker for this pair is critical to running a meaningful backtest and deriving actionable signals.