Market Overview: Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from a high of 0.799 to 0.769 over 24 hours, with a bearish bias and multiple failed recovery attempts.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with a bearish crossover and oversold conditions late in the session.
• Volatility expanded during the initial hours but contracted as the market trended lower, indicating reduced uncertainty and increased directional bias.
• Volume spiked during the early bearish breakdown and again in the final hours, confirming bearish sentiment and potential key support testing.

Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) opened at 0.769 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 0.799 before closing at 0.769 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a 24-hour high of 0.799 and a low of 0.76, reflecting a bearish trend. Total traded volume was 1,078,369.0, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $827,492.

Structure and key levels revealed strong bearish control, particularly after the 19:45 ET 15-minute candle closed at 0.753 (a large bearish real body and tail), breaking below the 0.76 psychological level. A doji formed near 0.778 at 02:30 ET, signaling indecision and a potential short-term reversal or consolidation. Resistance levels include 0.776–0.778 (multiple failed attempts to hold above this level), while support is currently at 0.765–0.767. A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the breakdown around 20:00 ET, suggesting further tests of key support.

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart indicated a bearish bias, with the 50 SMA acting as dynamic resistance. The daily chart showed the price trading below all major moving averages (50/100/200), reinforcing a long-term bearish trend. The MACD crossed below the signal line at 19:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum, while RSI bottomed at 28.5 at 03:30 ET, signaling oversold conditions. The price may find temporary support at 0.761–0.765, where Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.799 to 0.753 move align with 61.8% and 78.6% levels.

Bollinger Bands displayed a clear expansion at the start of the session, followed by a contraction as the trend solidified. Price closed within the lower band during the final 4 hours, indicating a consolidation phase after a significant bearish move. The 20-period Bollinger Band width dropped from 0.037 to 0.016 during this time, suggesting reduced volatility.

Volume and turnover increased significantly during the breakdown at 19:45 ET and again during the late overnight rally attempt. Price and volume were aligned during these moves, confirming bearish control. However, a divergence occurred between the last 2–3 bullish 15-minute candles in the 02:00–05:00 ET window, where price rose but volume failed to support the move, indicating weakening bullish conviction.

A potential backtest hypothesis can be built on the observed bearish engulfing pattern and the confirmed breakdown at 0.753. A strategy could enter a short position at the close of the bearish engulfing candle (0.753) with a stop-loss above the high of 0.764 and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.761. Additional confirmation from the RSI reaching oversold territory and a bearish MACD crossover would enhance the signal. This approach could be tested over a range of similar setups to assess consistency and risk-adjusted returns.